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Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks but struggle to accurately quantify uncertainty in their generated responses. This limitation makes it challenging to detect misinformation and ensure reliable decision-making. Existing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Boxuan Zhang , Ruqi Zhang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an important building block for the reliable use of neural networks in real-world scenarios, as it can be a useful tool in identifying faulty predictions. Speech emotion recognition (SER) models can suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Oliver Schrüfer , Manuel Milling , Felix Burkhardt , Florian Eyben , Björn Schuller

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Despite the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), uncertainty quantification in LLM generation is a persistent challenge. Although recent approaches have achieved strong performance by restricting LLMs to produce short or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Haozhi Fan , Jinhao Duan , Kaidi Xu

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves the question answering capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by incorporating external knowledge and has recently been extended to multimodal settings through Vision-Language Models…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Simon Binz , Heydar Soudani , Faegheh Hasibi

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has transformed the landscape of natural language processing, enabling breakthroughs across a wide range of areas including question answering, machine translation, and text…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Sungmin Kang , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Baturalp Buyukates , Salman Avestimehr

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive fluency, but often produce critical errors known as "hallucinations". Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are a promising tool for coping with this fundamental shortcoming. Yet, existing…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Xiaoyang Huang , Jiancheng Yang , Linguo Li , Haoran Deng , Bingbing Ni , Yi Xu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations and low-quality output of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining proper uncertainty scores is complicated by the conditional…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

Despite the massive advancements in large language models (LLMs), they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yongjin Yang , Haneul Yoo , Hwaran Lee

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Hua Wei

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Rui Li , Jing Long , Muge Qi , Heming Xia , Lei Sha , Peiyi Wang , Zhifang Sui

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a prominent approach for eliciting truthful answers from large language models (LLMs). To date, information-based and consistency-based UQ have been the dominant UQ methods for text generation via LLMs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Artem Vazhentsev , Lyudmila Rvanova , Ivan Lazichny , Alexander Panchenko , Maxim Panov , Timothy Baldwin , Artem Shelmanov