Related papers: Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction
We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-step time series forecasting, with a focus on the temporal dependencies inherent in multi-step forecast errors. We establish that the optimal…
The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…
Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…
Leave-one-problem-out (LOPO) performance prediction requires machine learning (ML) models to extrapolate algorithms' performance from a set of training problems to a previously unseen problem. LOPO is a very challenging task even for…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…
It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…
Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…
Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…
Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
The aim of this paper is to present a new fast-convergent numerically stable space-time adaptive processing (STAP) algorithm derived using a novel technique of feedback orthogonalization. The main advantages of this approach lie in its…
We present a novel framework for robust out-of-distribution planning and control using conformal prediction (CP) and system level synthesis (SLS), addressing the challenge of ensuring safety and robustness when using learned dynamics models…
This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…
Modern software-defined networks, such as Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) systems, rely on artificial intelligence (AI)-powered applications running on controllers interfaced with the radio access network. To ensure that these AI…
Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…
The Lasso has been widely used as a method for variable selection, valued for its simplicity and empirical performance. However, Lasso's selection stability deteriorates in the presence of correlated predictors. Several approaches have been…
Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…
Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…
Designing effective score functions in Conformal Prediction (CP) for time-series data remains challenging due to conservativeness and/or computational inefficiency. We propose Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction (OSCP), which…