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Model selection is often performed by empirical risk minimization. The quality of selection in a given situation can be assessed by risk bounds, which require assumptions both on the margin and the tails of the losses used. Starting with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Charles Mitchell , Sara van de Geer

This article is dedicated to the estimation of the regression function when the explanatory variable is a weakly dependent process whose correlation coefficient exhibits exponential decay and has a known bounded density function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Karine Bertin , Lisandro Fermin , Miguel Padrino

We consider both $\ell _{0}$-penalized and $\ell _{0}$-constrained quantile regression estimators. For the $\ell _{0}$-penalized estimator, we derive an exponential inequality on the tail probability of excess quantile prediction risk and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-30 Le-Yu Chen , Sokbae Lee

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Ethan Harvey , Michael C. Hughes

We exhibit an approximate equivalence between the Lasso estimator and Dantzig selector. For both methods we derive parallel oracle inequalities for the prediction risk in the general nonparametric regression model, as well as bounds on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-10 Peter J. Bickel , Ya'acov Ritov , Alexandre B. Tsybakov

This paper studies sparse linear regression analysis with outliers in the responses. A parameter vector for modeling outliers is added to the standard linear regression model and then the sparse estimation problem for both coefficients and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Shota Katayama , Hironori Fujisawa

In this paper, we study the nonparametric linear model, when the error process is a dependent Gaussian process. We focus on the estimation of the mean vector via a model selection approach. We first give the general theoretical form of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 Emmanuel Caron , Jérôme Dedecker , Bertrand Michel

The use of the proportional odds (PO) model for ordinal regression is ubiquitous in the literature. If the assumption of parallel lines does not hold for the data, then an alternative is to specify a non-proportional odds (NPO) model, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-27 Trevelyan J. McKinley , Michelle Morters , James L. N. Wood

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-06 Pascal Rink , Werner Brannath

We consider the problem of choosing between several models in least-squares regression with heteroscedastic data. We prove that any penalization procedure is suboptimal when the penalty is a function of the dimension of the model, at least…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-07-28 Sylvain Arlot

This paper consider penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown non-linear target functions. Using the elastic net penalty we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Mehmet Caner , Anders Bredahl Kock

Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Niloofar Ramezani , Martin Slawski

We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence minimization for models satisfying linear constraints with unknown parameter. Several statistical examples and motivations are given. These procedures extend the empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-24 Michel Broniatowski , Amor Keziou

We analyze general model selection procedures using penalized empirical loss minimization under computational constraints. While classical model selection approaches do not consider computational aspects of performing model selection, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-02 Alekh Agarwal , Peter L. Bartlett , John C. Duchi

This paper studies oracle properties of $\ell_1$-penalized least squares in nonparametric regression setting with random design. We show that the penalized least squares estimator satisfies sparsity oracle inequalities, i.e., bounds in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Florentina Bunea , Alexandre Tsybakov , Marten Wegkamp

We consider the problem of finding an approximate solution to $\ell_1$ regression while only observing a small number of labels. Given an $n \times d$ unlabeled data matrix $X$, we must choose a small set of $m \ll n$ rows to observe the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Aditya Parulekar , Advait Parulekar , Eric Price

We consider high-dimensional generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, and prove a nonasymptotic oracle inequality for the empirical risk minimizer with Lasso penalty. The penalty is based on the coefficients in the linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Sara A. van de Geer

We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-10 Lucie Montuelle , Erwan Le Pennec , Serge Cohen

We consider the non-parametric Poisson regression problem where the integer valued response $Y$ is the realization of a Poisson random variable with parameter $\lambda(X)$. The aim is to estimate the functional parameter $\lambda$ from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-14 Martin Kroll

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Dominik Rothenhäusler