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Interactions between several features sometimes play an important role in prediction tasks. But taking all the interactions into consideration will lead to an extremely heavy computational burden. For categorical features, the situation is…
This research extends the conventional concepts of the bid--ask spread (BAS) and mid-price to include the total market order book bid--ask spread (TMOBBAS) and the global mid-price (GMP). Using high-frequency trading data, we investigate…
We apply empirical Bayes (EB) to mine data on 136,000 long-short strategies constructed from accounting ratios, past returns, and ticker symbols. This ``high-throughput asset pricing'' matches the out-of-sample performance of top journals…
In the multireference alignment model, a signal is observed by the action of a random circular translation and the addition of Gaussian noise. The goal is to recover the signal's orbit by accessing multiple independent observations. Of…
Snapshot ensembles have been widely used in various fields of prediction. They allow for training an ensemble of prediction models at the cost of training a single one. They are known to yield more robust predictions by creating a set of…
Randomising networks using a naive `accept-all' edge-swap algorithm is generally biased. Building on recent results for nondirected graphs, we construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities for…
The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of (undirected, or directed) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the…
Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables $X$ and $Y$, we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between $X$ and $Y$. In particular, we consider the general case where both $X$ and $Y$ may be…
Classification and characterization of variable phenomena and transient phenomena are critical for astrophysics and cosmology. These objects are commonly studied using photometric time series or spectroscopic data. Given that many ongoing…
Consider the {$\ell_{\alpha}$} regularized linear regression, also termed Bridge regression. For $\alpha\in (0,1)$, Bridge regression enjoys several statistical properties of interest such as sparsity and near-unbiasedness of the estimates…
Prediction-market price moves are widely treated as informationally equivalent: a price jump is read the same way regardless of whether it reflects durable Bayesian updating, transient liquidity pressure, strategic position adjustment, or…
In this paper we present algorithms for approximating real band-limited signals by multiple Gaussian Chirps. These algorithms do not rely on matching pursuit ideas. They are hierarchial and, at each stage, the number of terms in a given…
We describe, in the detection of multi-sample aligned sparse signals, the critical boundary separating detectable from nondetectable signals, and construct tests that achieve optimal detectability: penalized versions of the Berk-Jones and…
Statistical change point (CP) detection methods typically rely on likelihood-based inference and ignore contextual information about plausible CP locations beyond the observed sequence. Although informative priors provide a natural way to…
We revisit the long-only trend-following strategy presented in A Century of Profitable Industry Trends by Zarattini and Antonacci, which achieved exceptional historical performance with an 18.2% annualized return and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.39.…
The real-valued Jaccard and coincidence indices, in addition to their conceptual and computational simplicity, have been verified to be able to provide promising results in tasks such as template matching, tending to yield peaks that are…
When dealing with modern big data sets, a very common theme is reducing the set through a random process. These generally work by making "many simple estimates" of the full data set, and then judging them as a whole. Perhaps magically,…
A new generalized ridge regression shrinkage path is proposed that is as short as possible under the restriction that it must pass through the vector of regression coefficient estimators that make the overall Optimal Variance-Bias Trade-Off…
Scientists aim to extract simplicity from observations of the complex world. An important component of this process is the exploration of data in search of trends. In practice, however, this tends to be more of an art than a science. Among…
Ensemble techniques for classification and clustering have long proven effective, yet anomaly ensembles have been barely studied. In this work, we tap into this gap and propose a new ensemble approach for anomaly mining, with application to…