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Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…
Predicting extreme events in high-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge, as such events are rare, intermittent, and arise from transient dynamical mechanisms that are difficult to infer from limited…
We present a data-driven feedforward control to attenuate large transient lift experienced by an airfoil disturbed by an extreme level of discrete vortex gust. The current analysis uses a nonlinear machine-learning technique to compress the…
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate…
We present a framework for inference for spatial processes that have actual values imperfectly represented by data. Environmental processes represented as spatial fields, either at fixed time points, or aggregated over fixed time periods,…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…
Large data-driven physics models like DeepMind's weather model GraphCast have empirically succeeded in parameterizing time operators for complex dynamical systems with an accuracy reaching or in some cases exceeding that of traditional…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
Accurate short-term warnings for extreme precipitation are critical for global disaster mitigation but are hindered by a persistent predictability barrier at the 2-6 hour horizon -- the "nowcasting gray zone." In this window, traditional…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…