Related papers: Is ENSO a damped or a self-sustained oscillation?

Self-sustained oscillators are ubiquitous and essential for metrology, communications, time reference, and geolocation. In its most basic form an oscillator consists of a resonator driven on-resonance, through feedback, to create a periodic…

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are a class of single layer recurrent neural networks that have enjoyed recent attention. In this paper we prove that a suitable ESN, trained on a series of measurements of an invertible dynamical system, induces…

This paper studies the chaotic behavior of hydrosphere and its influence on global weather and climate. We give mathematical arguments for the sea surface temperature (SST) to be unpredictable over the global ocean. The impact of SST…

We study self-sustained oscillations (SO) in a Nb superconducting stripline resonators (SSR) integrated with a DC superconducting quantum interface devices (SQUID). We find that both the power threshold where these oscillations start and…

The mechanisms of interaction between the seasonal cycle and ENSO are investigated using the Zebiak and Cane ENSO prediction model. The most dominant seasonal effect is found to be due to the wind divergence field, as determined by the…

Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…

We consider frequency fluctuations in self-sustained oscillators based on nonlinear underdamped resonators. An important type of such resonators are nano- and micro-electro-mechanical systems. Various noise sources are considered, with the…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

An echo state network (ESN) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a recurrent neural network with a sparsely connected hidden layer. Compared with other recurrent neural networks, one great advantage of ESN is the simplicity of its…

The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…

There is an abundance of evidence that some relaxation dynamics, e.g., exponential decays, are much more common in nature than others. Recently, there have been attempts to trace this dominance back to a certain stability of the prevalent…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…

Model uncertainty presents significant challenges in vibration suppression of multi-inertia systems, as these systems often rely on inaccurate nominal mathematical models due to system identification errors or unmodeled dynamics. An…

Nonlinear isolated and coupled oscillators are extensively studied as prototypical nonlinear dynamics models. Much attention has been devoted to oscillator synchronization or the lack thereof. Here, we study the synchronization and…

We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

We study the noisy dynamics of a close relative of the sand pile model. Depending on the type of noise and the time scale of observation, we find stationary fluctuations (similar to SOC) or an aging dynamics with punctuated equilibria, a…

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…

The extended state observer (ESO) is an inherent element of robust observer-based control systems that allows estimating the impact of disturbance on system dynamics. Proper tuning of ESO parameters is necessary to ensure a good quality of…