Related papers: Network Effects of Tariffs
An economy-wide production network, manifested through monetary input-output coefficients, inherently destabilizes during the general equilibrium propagation of sectoral productivity shocks when substitution elasticities are non-neutral.…
This paper presents evidence on the granular nature of firms' network of foreign suppliers and studies its implications for the impact of supplier shocks on domestic firms' performance. To demonstrate this, I use customs level information…
As a vital strategic resource, oil has an essential influence on the world economy, diplomacy and military development. Using oil trade data to dynamically monitor and warn about international trade risks is an urgent need. Based on the UN…
Global trade of material goods involves the potential to create pathways for the spread of infectious pathogens. One trade sector in which this synergy is clearly critical is that of wildlife trade networks. This highly complex system…
This article surveys the variety of ways in which a directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be used to represent a problem of probabilistic causality. For each of these we describe the relevant formal or informal semantics governing that…
I study a static textbook model of monetary policy and relax the conventional assumption that the private sector has rational expectations. Instead, the private sector forms inflation forecasts according to a misspecified subjective model…
Studies built on dependency and world-system theory using network approaches have shown that international trade is structured into clusters of 'core' and 'peripheral' countries performing distinct functions. However, few have used these…
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the…
This paper develops a strategic model of trade between two regions in which, depending on the relation among output, financial resources and transportation costs, the adjustment of prices towards an equilibrium is studied. We derive…
There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or `green' benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while…
We quantify the Tariff Laffer Curve for the U.S. using a multi-sector Ricardian model calibrated to the 2025 US trade war. We find revenue-maximizing tariffs of 20--30 percent and welfare-maximizing rates of 0--10 percent. We define the…
Comparing directed acyclic graphs is essential in various fields such as healthcare, social media, finance, biology, and marketing. DAGs often result from contagion processes over networks, including information spreading, retweet activity,…
Quantifying causal effects of exposures on outcomes, such as a treatment and a disease respectively, is a crucial issue in medical science for the administration of effective therapies. Importantly, any related causal analysis should…
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…
Various kinds of spread of influence occur in real world social and virtual networks. These phenomena are formulated by activation processes and irreversible dynamic monopolies in combinatorial graphs representing the topology of the…
This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very…
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to represent causal relationships among random variables in graphical models. Applications of these models arise in the study of physical, as well as biological systems, where directed edges…
Our goal in this paper is to study the market impact in a market in which the order flow is autocorrelated. We build a model which explains qualitatively and quantitatively the empirical facts observed so far concerning market impact. We…
The digital exhaust left by flows of physical and digital commodities provides a rich measure of the nature, strength and significance of relationships between countries in the global network. With this work, we examine how these traces and…
Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches…