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To investigate causal mechanisms, causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. This paper examines the estimation of the direct and indirect effects in a general treatment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-24 Lukang Huang , Wei Huang , Oliver Linton , Zheng Zhang

Two problems that arise in making causal inferences for non-mortality outcomes such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) are unmeasured confounding and censoring by death, i.e., the outcome is only observed when subjects survive. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-20 Kwonsang Lee , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

We study nonparametric distance-based (isotropic) local polynomial methods for estimating the boundary average treatment effect curve, a causal functional that captures treatment effect heterogeneity in boundary discontinuity designs. We…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Nonlinear causal effects are prevalent in many research scenarios involving continuous exposures, and instrumental variables (IVs) can be employed to investigate such effects, particularly in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Haodong Tian , Ashish Patel , Stephen Burgess

This paper analyzes the effect of a discrete treatment Z on a duration T. The treatment is not randomly assigned. The confounding issue is treated using a discrete instrumental variable explaining the treatment and independent of the error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Jad Beyhum , Jean-Pierre FLorens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Shiangyi Lin , Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Many treatments or policy interventions are continuous in nature. Examples include prices, taxes or temperatures. Empirical researchers have usually relied on two-way fixed effect regressions to estimate treatment effects in such cases.…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-09 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

Causal treatment effect estimation is a key problem that arises in a variety of real-world settings, from personalized medicine to governmental policy making. There has been a flurry of recent work in machine learning on estimating causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Niki Kilbertus , Matt J. Kusner , Ricardo Silva

Many empirical applications estimate causal effects of a continuous endogenous variable (treatment) using a binary instrument. Estimation is typically done through linear 2SLS. This approach requires a mean treatment change and causal…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-28 Yingying Dong , Ying-Ying Lee

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables (NPIV) analysis is based on a conditional moment restriction. We show that if this moment condition is even slightly misspecified, say because instruments are not quite valid, then NPIV estimates can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-13 Ben Deaner

We study the causal effect with a functional treatment variable, where practical applications often arise in neuroscience, biomedical sciences, etc. Previous research concerning the effect of a functional variable on an outcome is typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Ruoxu Tan , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang , Guosheng Yin

Modern medical research demands specialized causal inference methods evaluating complex continuous-time dynamic treatment regimens using observational data. For instance, obtaining the causal effects of intravenous administration, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Haiyan Zhu , Yingchun Zhou

Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

This article introduces a new instrumental variable approach for estimating unknown population parameters with data having nonrandom missing values. With coarse and discrete instruments, Shao and Wang (2016) proposed a semiparametric method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Arkaprabha Ganguli , David Todem

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa
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