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Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly important for short-term power-system operation. With increasing renewable generation, demand-side flexibility, and storage assets, market participants need to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Yuchen Tao , Fabian Leimgruber , Tara Esterl , Jochen Stiasny , Derek W. Bunn , Qingsong Wen , Hongye Guo , Jochen L. Cremer

In the following paper, we analyse the ID$_3$-Price in the German Intraday Continuous electricity market using an econometric time series model. A multivariate approach is conducted for hourly and quarter-hourly products separately. We…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-01 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

We consider decision-making problems under decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU), where the distribution of uncertain parameters depends on the decision variables and is only observable through a finite offline dataset. To address this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Chengrui Qu , Huiwen Jia , Pengcheng You

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Julia Lin , Derek W. Bunn , Jochen Stiasny , Wentao Wang , Yujie Chen , Tara Esterl , Peter Palensky , Jochen L. Cremer

Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the remaining part, predicting both separately, and then combining their forecasts can bring significant accuracy gains…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-05 Katarzyna Chęć , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 Yixiang Huang , Jianhua Pei , Luocheng Chen , Zhenchang Du , Jinfu Chen , Zirui Peng

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

In this work we considered several hybrid modelling approaches for forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC market. Hybridization is performed through combining a Naive model, Fourier analysis, ARMA and GARCH models, a mean-reversion and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-19 Tahir Miriyev , Alessandro Contu , Kevin Schafers , Ion Gabriel Ion

With the increasing integration of power plants into the frequency-regulation markets, the importance of optimal trading has grown substantially. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of their optimal trading behavior in sequential…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-30 Saeed Nordin , Abolfazl Khodadadi , Priyanka Shinde , Evelin Blom , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh , Lennart Söder

This is the second part of a two-part paper on data-based distributionally robust stochastic optimal power flow (OPF). The general problem formulation and methodology have been presented in Part I [1]. Here, we present extensive numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-29 Yi Guo , Kyri Baker , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Zechun Hu , Tyler H. Summers

In this paper, we address the problem of online parameter estimation of a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) polarization curve, that is the static relation between the voltage and the current of the PEMFC. The task of designing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-15 Carlo Beltran , Alexey Bobtsov , Romeo Ortega , Diego Langarica-Cordoba , Rafael Cisneros , Luis H. Diaz-Saldierna

In this paper we propose a regularization approach for network modeling of German power derivative market. To deal with the large portfolio, we combine high-dimensional variable selection techniques with dynamic network analysis. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-22 Shi Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Brenda López Cabrera

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for market participants to support operational planning and risk management, yet remains challenging due to strong volatility, nonlinear dynamics, and frequent extreme price spikes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Houxuan Zhou , Sriram Prasad , Chenghao Huang , Jiajie Feng , Hao Wang

The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) is one of the essential efforts to mitigate global climate change. However, a vast number of small-scale DERs are difficult to manage individually, motivating the introduction of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-26 Tao Tan , Rui Xie , Meng Yang , Yue Chen

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is critical for the efficient operation of power systems, but extreme condition and market anomalies pose significant challenges to existing forecasting methods. To overcome these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Boyan Tang , Xuanhao Ren , Peng Xiao , Shunbo Lei , Xiaorong Sun , Jianghua Wu

We consider the problem of dynamic pricing of a product in the presence of feature-dependent price sensitivity. Developing practical algorithms that can estimate price elasticities robustly, especially when information about no purchases…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-21 Ravi Kumar , Shahin Boluki , Karl Isler , Jonas Rauch , Darius Walczak

Convergence (virtual) bidding is an important part of two-settlement electric power markets as it can effectively reduce discrepancies between the day-ahead and real-time markets. Consequently, there is extensive research into the bidding…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-09 Letif Mones , Sean Lovett

Accurate electricity price forecasting is the main management goal for market participants since it represents the fundamental basis to maximize the profits for market players. However, electricity is a non-storable commodity and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Souhir Ben Amor , Heni Boubaker , Lotfi Belkacem

An accurate load forecast is always important for the power industry and energy players as it enables stakeholders to make critical decisions. In addition, its importance is further increased with growing uncertainties in the generation…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-11-26 Muhammad Qamar Raza , N. Mithulananthan , Jiaming Li , Kwang Y. Lee

Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for various economic activities, including energy trading, risk management, and investment planning. Although deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for crude oil price…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Mohammed Alruqimi , Luca Di Persio