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Several approaches have been proposed to forecast day-ahead locational marginal price (daLMP) in deregulated energy markets. The rise of deep learning has motivated its use in energy price forecasts but most deep learning approaches fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Dipanwita Saha , Felipe Lopez

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Forecasters using flexible neural networks (NN) in multi-horizon distributional regression setups often struggle to gain detailed insights into the underlying mechanisms that lead to the predicted feature-conditioned distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Alessandro Brusaferri , Danial Ramin , Andrea Ballarino

We study a demand response problem from utility (also referred to as operator)'s perspective with realistic settings, in which the utility faces uncertainty and limited communication. Specifically, the utility does not know the cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-11 Pan Li , Hao Wang , Baosen Zhang

This paper introduces a novel model for online dynamic pricing of electric vehicle charging services that integrates reservation, parking, and charging into a comprehensive bundle priced as a whole. Our approach focuses on the individual…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jan Mrkos , Antonín Komenda , David Fiedler , Jiří Vokřínek

Recently, there is growing interest and need for dynamic pricing algorithms, especially, in the field of online marketplaces by offering smart pricing options for big online stores. We present an approach to adjust prices based on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-13 David Müller , Yurii Nesterov , Vladimir Shikhman

An effective distribution electricity market (DEM) is required to manage the rapidly growing small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems (DSs). This paper proposes a day-ahead DEM clearing and pricing mechanism…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-15 Zongzheng Zhao , Yixin Liu , Li Guo , Linquan Bai , Chengshan Wang

Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-28 Buyi Yu , Wenyuan Tang

As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-01 Julian Geis , Fabian Neumann , Michael Lindner , Philipp Härtel , Tom Brown

Accurate electrical load forecasting is of great importance for the efficient operation and control of modern power systems. In this work, a hybrid long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model with online correction is developed for day-ahead…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-07 Nan Lu , Quan Ouyang , Yang Li , Changfu Zou

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-06 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-16 Jaeyong An , P. R. Kumar , Le Xie

This paper presents a novel approach to electricity price forecasting (EPF) using a pure Transformer model. As opposed to other alternatives, no other recurrent network is used in combination to the attention mechanism. Hence, showing that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Oscar Llorente , Jose Portela

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Guido Cavraro , Andrey Bernstein , Emiliano Dall'Anese

We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-04 Martin Rypdal , Ola Løvsletten

The flexible loads in power systems, such as interruptible and transferable loads, are critical flexibility resources for mitigating power imbalances. Despite their potential, accurate modeling of these loads is a challenging work and has…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-06 Mingji Chen , Shuai Lu , Wei Gu , Zhaoyang Dong , Yijun Xu , Jiayi Ding

We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-01-22 Yi Guo , Kyri Baker , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Zechun Hu , Tyler Summers

A multivariate density forecast model based on deep learning is designed in this paper to forecast the joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDFs) of multiple security margins in power systems. Differing from existing multivariate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-10 Zichao Meng , Ye Guo , Wenjun Tang , Hongbin Sun , Wenqi Huang

The recent development of advanced machine learning methods for hybrid models has greatly addressed the need for the correct prediction of electrical prices. This method combines AlexNet and LSTM algorithms, which are used to introduce a…

This paper develops learning-augmented algorithms for energy trading in volatile electricity markets. The basic problem is to sell (or buy) $k$ units of energy for the highest revenue (lowest cost) over uncertain time-varying prices, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Russell Lee , Bo Sun , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , John C. S. Lui