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Continuous-time reinforcement learning (CTRL) provides a natural framework for sequential decision-making in dynamic environments where interactions evolve continuously over time. While CTRL has shown growing empirical success, its ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Runze Zhao , Yue Yu , Ruhan Wang , Chunfeng Huang , Dongruo Zhou

This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Rustam Ibragimov , Jihyun Kim , Anton Skrobotov

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Gordon V. Chavez

Machine-learned black-box policies are ubiquitous for nonlinear control problems. Meanwhile, crude model information is often available for these problems from, e.g., linear approximations of nonlinear dynamics. We study the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Tongxin Li , Ruixiao Yang , Guannan Qu , Yiheng Lin , Steven Low , Adam Wierman

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Marcin Kostrzewa , Maciej Zięba , Jerzy Stefanowski

Reinforcement Learning, particularly through policy gradient methods, has played a central role in enabling reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models. However, the optimization stability of policy gradients in this setting remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Luckeciano C. Melo , Alessandro Abate , Yarin Gal

We introduce a novel framework to account for sensitivity to rewards uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. While risk-sensitive formulations for Markov decision processes studied so far focus on the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 Nelson Vadori , Sumitra Ganesh , Prashant Reddy , Manuela Veloso

Motivated by a problem of optimal harvesting of natural resources, we study a control problem for Volterra type dynamics driven by time-changed L\'evy noises, which are in general not Markovian. To exploit the nature of the noise, we make…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Giulia di Nunno , Michele Giordano

In this work we address the problem of performing a repetitive task when we have uncertain observations and dynamics. We formulate this problem as an iterative infinite horizon optimal control problem with output feedback. Previously, this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-04 Lukas Brunke , Siqi Zhou , Angela P. Schoellig

We study robust nonlinear filtering for stochastic models driven by L\'evy processes, where the signal and observation processes are coupled through common Brownian and jump noise. Robustness, defined as the continuous dependence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Sharan Srinivasan , Vijay Gupta , Harsha Honnappa

We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with an unknown cost function and employ stochastic convex optimization tools to address the problem of imitation learning, which consists of learning a policy from a finite set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Angeliki Kamoutsi , Goran Banjac , John Lygeros

Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Shuang Li , Shuai Xiao , Shixiang Zhu , Nan Du , Yao Xie , Le Song

Linear dynamical systems that obey stochastic differential equations are canonical models. While optimal control of known systems has a rich literature, the problem is technically hard under model uncertainty and there are hardly any…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-09 Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh , Mohamad Sadegh Shirani Faradonbeh

Following the recent resurgence in establishing linear control theoretic benchmarks for reinforcement leaning (RL)-based policy optimization (PO) for complex dynamical systems with continuous state and action spaces, an optimal control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-30 Leilei Cui , Lekan Molu

Constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) addresses sequential decision-making problems where agents are required to achieve goals by maximizing the expected return while meeting domain-specific constraints. In this setting, policy-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Alessandro Montenegro , Leonardo Cesani , Marco Mussi , Matteo Papini , Alberto Maria Metelli

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are the bedrock for modern computational sciences and engineering, and inherently computationally expensive. While PDE foundation models have shown much promise for simulating such complex…

In recent years, stabilizing unknown dynamical systems has became a critical problem in control systems engineering. Addressing this for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is an essential fist step towards solving similar problems for more…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Xinpei Zhang , Guangyan Jia

Missing data is unavoidable in longitudinal clinical trials, and outcomes are not always normally distributed. In the presence of outliers or heavy-tailed distributions, the conventional multiple imputation with the mixed model with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-22 Siyi Liu , Yilong Zhang , Gregory T Golm , Guanghan , Liu , Shu Yang

Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control is a powerful sampling-based strategy for nonlinear autonomous systems. However, its performance is often bottlenecked by the fidelity of nominal dynamics. We propose ICODE-MPPI, a robust…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Shugen Song , Wenjie Mei , Chengyan Zhao

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Debashis Chatterjee