Related papers: Sample Path Large Deviations for Multivariate Heav…

We provide asymptotic results and develop high frequency statistical procedures for time-changed L\'evy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by first hitting times of symmetric barriers whose distance with…

We provide large deviations estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs where the degrees have power law tails with index $-\alpha, \alpha \in (1,2)$. We show that upper tail…

Using the Wiener-Hopf factorization, it is shown that it is possible to bound the path of an arbitrary Levy process above and below by the paths of two random walks. These walks have the same step distribution, but different random starting…

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

The Hawkes process is a counting process that has self- and mutually-exciting features with many applications in various fields. In recent years, there have been many interests in the mean-field results of the Hawkes process and its…

This paper deals with the large deviations behavior of a stochastic process called thinned Levy process. This process appeared recently as a stochastic-process limit in the context of critical inhomogeneous random graphs. The process has a…

The Hawkes process is used to model point process data where events occur in clusters and bursts. In a standard multivariate Hawkes process, every event that occurs in a dimension has an equal impact on the process intensity. However, this…

In the framework of Harnack type Dirichlet forms, we prove a large deviation principle for the asymptotics of reversible Markov processes with rate function given by the energy of the paths.

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

A phase-type distribution is the distribution of the time until absorption in a finite state-space time-homogeneous Markov jump process, with one absorbing state and the rest being transient. These distributions are mathematically tractable…

This article shows a strong averaging principle for diffusions driven by discontinuous heavy-tailed L\'evy noise, which are invariant on the compact horizontal leaves of a foliated manifold subject to small transversal random perturbations.…

We construct a two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model that captures asymmetric self- and cross-excitation in and between left- and right-tail extreme values within a time series. We demonstrate its applicability by investigating…

Moving average processes driven by exponential-tailed L\'evy noise are important extensions of their Gaussian counterparts in order to capture deviations from Gaussianity, more flexible dependence structures, and sample paths with jumps.…

The problem of (pathwise) large deviations for conditionally continuous Gaussian processes is investigated. The theory of large deviations for Gaussian processes is extended to the wider class of random processes -- the conditionally…

Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Despite the widespread occurrence of classification problems and the increasing collection of point process data across many disciplines, study of error probability for point process classification only emerged very recently. Here, we…

This paper describes limiting behaviour of tail empirical process associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between a Hurst parameter and a tail…