Related papers: Sample Path Large Deviations for Multivariate Heav…
In this work, we study asymptotics of multitype Galton-Watson trees with finitely many types. We consider critical and irreducible offspring distributions such that they belong to the domain of attraction of a stable law, where the…
Conditional extreme value theory (EVT) methods promise enhanced forecasting of the extreme tail events that often dominate systemic risk. We present an improved two-tailed peaks-over-threshold (2T-POT) Hawkes model that is adapted for…
We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…
The term noncentral moderate deviations is used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between the convergence in probability to a constant (governed by a reference large deviation…
We study sums of independent and identically distributed random velocities in special relativity. We show that the resulting one-dimensional velocity distributions are not only stable under relativistic velocity addition but define a…
This paper establishes a Transition Path Theory (TPT) for L\'{e}vy-type processes, addressing a critical gap in the study of the transition mechanism between meta-stabile states in non-Gaussian stochastic systems. A key contribution is the…
Causal discovery in multivariate extremes is challenging because extreme observations are sparse, dependent, and often affected by latent common shocks. Existing approaches focus on undirected extremal dependence, require prior graph…
The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…
Branching Processes in a Random Environment (BPREs) $(Z_n:n\geq0)$ are a generalization of Galton Watson processes where in each generation the reproduction law is picked randomly in an i.i.d. manner. We determine here the upper large…
We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…
In this paper we introduce a new class of L\'evy processes which we call hypergeometric-stable L\'evy processes, because they are obtained from symmetric stable processes through several transformations and where the Gauss hypergeometric…
In this work we characterize the local asymptotic self-similarity of harmonizable fractional L\'evy motions in the heavy tailed case. The corresponding tangent process is shown to be the harmonizable fractional stable motion. In addition,…
This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…
We prove large deviation principles (LDP) for the invariant measures of the multiclass totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) and the multiclass Hammersely-Aldous-Diaconis (HAD) process on a torus. The proof is based on a…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…
A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…
We prove a sample path large deviation principle (LDP) with sub-linear speed for unbounded functionals of certain Markov chains induced by the Lindley recursion. The LDP holds in the Skorokhod space $\mathbb{D}[0,T]$ equipped with the…
Pure-jump L\'evy processes are popular classes of stochastic processes which have found many applications in finance, statistics or machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel family of self-decomposable L\'evy processes where one…
In many stochastic models, the observables of interest are naturally encoded in double transforms (e.g., Laplace transforms) that couple spatial and temporal variables. Notably, the double transform often provides the only analytically…