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The concept of a bounded confidence level is incorporated in a nonconservative kinetic exchange model of opinion dynamics model where opinions have continuous values $\in [-1,1]$. The characteristics of the unrestricted model, which has one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-05-30 Parongama Sen

I propose here a new concept of information based on two relevant aspects of its expression. The first related to the undeniable fact that the expression of information modifies the physical state of its receiver. The second to the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Antonio Leon

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-09 Evangelia Kyrimi , Somayyeh Mossadegh , Nigel Tai , William Marsh

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-21 Andrew Gelman , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We derive a novel version of information-disturbance theorems for mutually unbiased observables. We show that the information gain by Eve inevitably makes the outcomes by Bob in the conjugate basis not only erroneous but random.

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Takayuki Miyadera , Hideki Imai

Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Jesse Aaron Zinn

We consider an approach to update nonmonotonic knowledge bases represented as extended logic programs under answer set semantics. New information is incorporated into the current knowledge base subject to a causal rejection principle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 T. Eiter , M. Fink , G. Sabbatini , H. Tompits

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Gert de Cooman , Marco Zaffalon

Motivated by the advances of quantum Darwinism and recognizing the role played by redundancy in identifying the small subset of quantum states with resilience characteristic of objective classical reality, we explore the implications of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-04-15 C. Jess Riedel , Wojciech H. Zurek , Michael Zwolak

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-10-06 Evan Piermont

I relax the standard assumptions of transitivity and partition structure in economic models of information to formalize vague knowledge: non-transitive indistinguishability over states. I show that vague knowledge, while failing to…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-09 Kerry Xiao

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Martino Bernasconi , Matteo Castiglioni , Andrea Celli , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti , Francesco Trovò

To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Robert C. Wilson , Jonathan D. Cohen , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

We examine how causal beliefs affect an agent's choices and how feedback on those choices leads to updated causal beliefs. Building on the structural-equations framework for modeling causality, we first examine the general problem of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-11 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont , Marie-Louise Vierø

Model retraining is usually treated as an ongoing maintenance task. But as Harrison Katz now argues, retraining can be better understood as approximate Bayesian inference under computational constraints. The gap between a continuously…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Harrison Katz

This brief note considers the problem of estimating temporal synergy and integrated information in dyadic dynamical processes. One of the standard estimators of dynamic synergy is based on the minimal mutual information between sets of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Thomas F. Varley

Algorithms for computing equilibria, optima, and fixed points in nonconvex problems often depend sensitively on practitioner-chosen initial conditions. When uniqueness of a solution is of interest, a common heuristic is to run such…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-17 Moeen Nehzati , Diego Cussen

The dynamics of belief and knowledge is one of the major components of any autonomous system that should be able to incorporate new pieces of information. In order to apply the rationality result of belief dynamics theory to various…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-01-28 Radhakrishnan Delhibabu

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Kush R. Varshney
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