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A Bayesian analytics framework that precisely quantifies uncertainty offers a significant advance for financial risk management. We develop an integrated approach that consistently enhances the handling of risk in market volatility…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-19 Sharif Al Mamun , Rakib Hossain , Md. Jobayer Rahman , Malay Kumar Devnath , Farhana Afroz , Lisan Al Amin

In recent years, there have been many practical applications of anomaly detection such as in predictive maintenance, detection of credit fraud, network intrusion, and system failure. The goal of anomaly detection is to identify in the test…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-12 Zekun Xu , Deovrat Kakde , Arin Chaudhuri

To extract the relevant features in a given dataset is a difficult task, recently resolved in the non-negative data case with the Non-negative Matrix factorization (NMF) method. The objective of this research work is to extend this method…

Outliers can seriously distort statistical inference by inducing excessive sensitivity in the likelihood function, thereby compromising the reliability of Bayesian estimation. To address this issue, we develop a robust Bayesian estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Jeongho Lee , Junmo Song

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Charita Dellaporta , Yuga Hikida , François-Xavier Briol

Robustness to outliers is a central issue in real-world machine learning applications. While replacing a model to a heavy-tailed one (e.g., from Gaussian to Student-t) is a standard approach for robustification, it can only be applied to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-01 Futoshi Futami , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Analyzing sequence data usually leads to the discovery of interesting patterns and then anomaly detection. In recent years, numerous frameworks and methods have been proposed to discover interesting patterns in sequence data as well as…

Databases · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Wensheng Gan , Lili Chen , Shicheng Wan , Jiahui Chen , Chien-Ming Chen

We derive ensembles of decision trees through a nonparametric Bayesian model, allowing us to view random forests as samples from a posterior distribution. This insight provides large gains in interpretability, and motivates a class of…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-19 Matt Taddy , Chun-Sheng Chen , Jun Yu , Mitch Wyle

Recommender systems are designed to suggest items based on user preferences, helping users navigate the vast amount of information available on the internet. Given the overwhelming content, outlier detection has emerged as a key research…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Mahamudul Hasan

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Mihaela Chiappetta , Massimo Carraturo , Alexander Raßloff , Markus Kästner , Ferdinando Auricchio

We address modelling and computational issues for multiple treatment effect inference under many potential confounders. Our main contribution is providing a trade-off between preventing the omission of relevant confounders, while not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , David Rossell , Miquel Torrens-i-Dinarès

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-17 Lawrence Bardwell , Paul Fearnhead

Outlier detection tasks aim at discovering potential issues or opportunities and are widely used in cybersecurity, financial security, industrial inspection, etc. To date, thousands of outlier detection algorithms have been proposed.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Qi Li

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

Ordinary least square (OLS) estimation of a linear regression model is well-known to be highly sensitive to outliers. It is common practice to (1) identify and remove outliers by looking at the data and (2) to fit OLS and form confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Shuxiao Chen , Jacob Bien

We present in this paper a new tool for outliers detection in the context of multiple regression models. This graphical tool is based on recursive estimation of the parameters. Simulations were carried out to illustrate the performance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-07-03 Christian Paroissin

Recent advances in technology have brought major breakthroughs in data collection, enabling a large amount of data to be gathered over time and thus generating time series. Mining this data has become an important task for researchers and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ane Blázquez-García , Angel Conde , Usue Mori , Jose A. Lozano

The Bradley-Terry model is a popular approach to describe probabilities of the possible outcomes when elements of a set are repeatedly compared with one another in pairs. It has found many applications including animal behaviour, chess…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Francois Caron , Arnaud Doucet
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