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As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Markus Oehri , Giulia Conti , Kaviraj Pather , Alexandre Rossi , Laia Serra , Adrian Parody , Rogvi Johannesen , Aviaja Petersen , Arben Krasniqi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a resource-efficient solution for on-device monitoring of tinyML models deployed without access to true labels. However, existing UQ methods impose significant memory and compute demands, making them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Nikhil P Ghanathe , Steven J E Wilton

Accurate uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) is essential for reliable confidence estimation, yet fine-tuned LLMs often become overconfident under limited adaptation data. Existing uncertainty methods for PEFT-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Ruijia Niu , Dongxia Wu , Rose Yu , Yi-An Ma

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Günter Klambauer , Sepp Hochreiter

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Deep learning-based surrogate models have demonstrated remarkable advantages over classical solvers in terms of speed, often achieving speedups of 10 to 1000 times over traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. However, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Tailin Wu , Willie Neiswanger , Hongtao Zheng , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

In large-scale recommender systems, ultra-long user behavior sequences encode rich signals of evolving interests. Extending sequence length generally improves accuracy, but directly modeling such sequences in production is infeasible due to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Kaiyuan Li , Yongxiang Tang , Yanhua Cheng , Yong Bai , Yanxiang Zeng , Chao Wang , Xialong Liu , Peng Jiang

The chain-of-thought (CoT) paradigm uses the elicitation of step-by-step rationales as a proxy for reasoning, gradually refining the model's latent representation of a solution. However, it remains unclear just how early a Large Language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Joey David

Recently, Knowledge Graphs (KGs) have been successfully coupled with Large Language Models (LLMs) to mitigate their hallucinations and enhance their reasoning capability, such as in KG-based retrieval-augmented frameworks. However, current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Bo Ni , Yu Wang , Lu Cheng , Erik Blasch , Tyler Derr

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Neha Gupta , Harikrishna Narasimhan , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Ankit Singh Rawat , Aditya Krishna Menon , Sanjiv Kumar

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Claim-level Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to mitigate the lack of reliability in Large Language Models (LLMs). We introduce MUCH, the first claim-level UQ benchmark designed for fair and reproducible evaluation of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Jérémie Dentan , Alexi Canesse , Davide Buscaldi , Aymen Shabou , Sonia Vanier

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning is currently drawing increasing research interest, driven by the rapid deployment of deep neural networks across different fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , Apostolos F Psaros , George Em Karniadakis

The prefill stage in long-context LLM inference remains a computational bottleneck. Recent token-ranking heuristics accelerate inference by selectively processing a subset of semantically relevant tokens. However, existing methods suffer…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Bradley McDanel , Steven Li , Harshit Khaitan

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot