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Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

Transformer-based language models have set new benchmarks across a wide range of NLP tasks, yet reliably estimating the uncertainty of their predictions remains a significant challenge. Existing uncertainty estimation (UE) techniques often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Elizaveta Kostenok , Daniil Cherniavskii , Alexey Zaytsev

AI Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has the potential to improve human decision-making beyond AI predictions alone by providing additional probabilistic information to users. The majority of past research on AI and human decision-making has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Laura R. Marusich , Jonathan Z. Bakdash , Yan Zhou , Murat Kantarcioglu

Benchmarks shape progress in AI research. A useful benchmark should be both difficult and realistic: questions should challenge frontier models while also reflecting real-world usage. Yet, current paradigms face a difficulty-realism…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-form generation, yet their application is hindered by the hallucination problem. While Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for assessing reliability,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Guanran Luo , Wentao Qiu , Wanru Zhao , Wenhan Lv , Zhongquan Jian , Meihong Wang , Qingqiang Wu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-11-14 Daniel Varivoda , Rongzhi Dong , Sadman Sadeed Omee , Jianjun Hu

When evaluating large language models (LLMs) with multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), it is common to end the prompt with the string "Answer:" to facilitate automated answer extraction via next-token probabilities. However, there is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Mario Sanz-Guerrero , Minh Duc Bui , Katharina von der Wense

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Hao Sun , Boris van Breugel , Jonathan Crabbe , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) provide inherent interpretability by first mapping input samples to high-level semantic concepts, followed by a combination of these concepts for the final classification. However, the annotation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Yangyi Li , Mengdi Huai

Large Language Models (LLMs), already shown to ace various unstructured text comprehension tasks, have also remarkably been shown to tackle table (structured) comprehension tasks without specific training. Building on earlier studies of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Kushal Raj Bhandari , Sixue Xing , Soham Dan , Jianxi Gao

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for machine translation, yet their predictions often exhibit uncertainties that hinder interpretability and user trust. Effectively visualizing these uncertainties can enhance the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Jin Hyun Park , Utsawb Laminchhane , Umer Farooq , Uma Sivakumar , Arpan Kumar

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Xiaoyang Huang , Jiancheng Yang , Linguo Li , Haoran Deng , Bingbing Ni , Yi Xu

Large language models (LLMs) excel at natural language understanding and generation but remain vulnerable to factual errors, limiting their reliability in knowledge-intensive tasks. While decoding-time strategies provide a promising…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Jingze Zhu , Yongliang Wu , Wenbo Zhu , Jiawang Cao , Yanqiang Zheng , Jiawei Chen , Xu Yang , Bernt Schiele , Jonas Fischer , Xinting Hu

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for the reliability of safety-critical human and artificial intelligence (AI) interaction systems, particularly in the domain of healthcare engineering. However, a robust and general uncertainty measure for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Chenxi Yuan , Qingyu Chen , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Ren Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

The emergence of discourse-like tokens such as "wait" and "therefore" in large language models (LLMs) has offered a unique window into their reasoning processes. However, systematic analyses of how such signals vary across training…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Jaehui Hwang , Dongyoon Han , Sangdoo Yun , Byeongho Heo

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for large language models are predominantly designed by hand based on domain knowledge and heuristics, limiting their scalability and generality. We apply LLM-powered evolutionary search to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Mikhail Seleznyov , Daniil Korbut , Viktor Moskvoretskii , Oleg Somov , Alexander Panchenko , Elena Tutubalina

Probabilistic decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs) often yields inconsistent outputs, particularly on complex or long-form questions. Self-Consistency (SC) mitigates this for short-form QA by majority voting over exact strings, whereas…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Jungsuk Oh , Jay-Yoon Lee

This research aims to unravel how large language models (LLMs) iteratively refine token predictions through internal processing. We utilized a logit lens technique to analyze the model's token predictions derived from intermediate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jaturong Kongmanee