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This paper develops a novel approach to random effects estimation and individual-level forecasting in micropanels, targeting individual accuracy rather than aggregate performance. The conventional shrinkage methods used in the literature,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Raffaella Giacomini , Sokbae Lee , Silvia Sarpietro

We consider the problem of predicting as well as the best linear combination of d given functions in least squares regression under L^\infty constraints on the linear combination. When the input distribution is known, there already exists…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-14 Jean-Yves Audibert , Olivier Catoni

Histogram-based empirical Bayes methods developed for analyzing data for large numbers of genes, SNPs, or other biological features tend to have large biases when applied to data with a smaller number of features such as genes with…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-10 Marta Padilla , David R. Bickel

Prediction becomes more challenging with missing covariates. What method is chosen to handle missingness can greatly affect how models perform. In many real-world problems, the best prediction performance is achieved by models that can…

King and Roberts (2015, KR) claim that a disagreement between robust and classical standard errors exposes model misspecification. We emphasize that KR's claim only generally applies to parametric models: models that assume a restrictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-08 Peter M. Aronow

We consider the problem of combining data from observational and experimental sources to make causal conclusions. This problem is increasingly relevant, as the modern era has yielded passive collection of massive observational datasets in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-19 Evan Rosenman , Guillaume Basse , Art Owen , Michael Baiocchi

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

We put forward an adaptive alpha (Type I Error) that decreases as the information grows, for hypothesis tests in which nested linear models are compared. A less elaborate adaptation was already presented in \citet{PP2014} for comparing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-06 D. Vélez , M. E. Pérez , L. R. Pericchi

In this paper, we propose the application of shrinkage strategies to estimate coefficients in the Bell regression models when prior information about the coefficients is available. The Bell regression models are well-suited for modeling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-03 Solmaz Seifollahi , Hossein Bevrani , Zakariya Yahya Algamal

This paper develops a slice sampler for Bayesian linear regression models with arbitrary priors. The new sampler has two advantages over current approaches. One, it is faster than many custom implementations that rely on auxiliary latent…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-18 P. Richard Hahn , Jingyu He , Hedibert Lopes

This paper analyzes the classical linear regression model with measurement errors in all the variables. First, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for identification of the coefficients. We show that the coefficients are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Dan Ben-Moshe

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Matthew D. Cocci , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

An appeal for symmetry is made to build established notions of specific representation and specific nonlinearity of measurement (often called model error) into a canonical linear regression model. Additive components are derived from the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-19 Richard E. Danielson

This paper focuses on Bayesian shrinkage for covariance matrix estimation. We examine posterior properties and frequentist risks of Bayesian estimators based on new hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors. More precisely, we give the existence…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Mathilde Bouriga , Olivier Féron

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-22 Jeffrey W. Miller , David B. Dunson

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes classifier has surprised machine learning researchers by exhibiting good performance on a variety of learning problems. Encouraged by these results, researchers have looked to overcome naive Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Eibe Frank , Mark Hall , Bernhard Pfahringer

Shrinkage estimation in a meta-analysis framework may be used to facilitate dynamical borrowing of information. This framework might be used to analyze a new study in the light of previous data, which might differ in their design (e.g., a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-08 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

This paper is speculated to propose a class of shrinkage estimators for shape parameter beta in failure censored samples from two-parameter Weibull distribution when some 'apriori' or guessed interval containing the parameter beta is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Housila P. Singh , Sharad Saxena , Jack Allen , Sarjinder Singh , Florentin Smarandache