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With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu , Yuesong Shen , Daniel Cremers

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Ruixin Yang , Dheeraj Rajagopal , Shirley Anugrah Hayati , Bin Hu , Dongyeop Kang

Deep neural networks (DNN) are prone to miscalibrated predictions, often exhibiting a mismatch between the predicted output and the associated confidence scores. Contemporary model calibration techniques mitigate the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Rishabh Patra , Tirtharaj Dash , Gautam Shroff , Lovekesh Vig

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-making tasks, where not only accuracy but also reliable confidence estimates are essential. Well-calibrated confidence enables downstream systems to decide when to trust a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Evangelia Spiliopoulou , Zheng Qi , Siddharth Varia , Srikanth Doss , Nikolaos Pappas

Self-supervised learning of graph neural networks (GNN) is in great need because of the widespread label scarcity issue in real-world graph/network data. Graph contrastive learning (GCL), by training GNNs to maximize the correspondence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Susheel Suresh , Pan Li , Cong Hao , Jennifer Neville

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples: minor perturbations to input samples intended to deliberately cause misclassification. While an obvious security threat, adversarial examples yield as well insights about the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Kathrin Grosse , David Pfaff , Michael Thomas Smith , Michael Backes

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are well-known for their vulnerability to adversarial attacks, posing significant security concerns. In response to these threats, various defense methods have emerged to bolster the model's robustness.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Jiacong Hu , Jingwen Ye , Zunlei Feng , Jiazhen Yang , Shunyu Liu , Xiaotian Yu , Lingxiang Jia , Mingli Song

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of real-world scenarios, where perfect information is rarely available. Humans naturally develop complex internal models to navigate incomplete data and effectively respond to unforeseen or partially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Wenhao Liang , Chang Dong , Liangwei Zheng , Wei Zhang , Weitong Chen

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Yunye Gong , Yi Yao , Xiao Lin , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio

Existing studies show that node representations generated by graph neural networks (GNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, such as unnoticeable perturbations of adjacent matrix and node features. Thus, it is requisite to learn robust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Jiayan Guo , Shangyang Li , Yue Zhao , Yan Zhang

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Conventional predictive Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) commonly employ deterministic weight matrices; therefore, their prediction is a point estimate. Such a deterministic nature in ANNs causes the limitations of using ANNs for medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Minhyeok Lee , Junhee Seok

Deep neural networks are notoriously miscalibrated, i.e., their outputs do not reflect the true probability of the event we aim to predict. While networks for tabular or image data are usually overconfident, recent works have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Erik Nascimento , Diego Mesquita , Samuel Kaski , Amauri H Souza

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as potent tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. Despite their efficacy, a significant drawback of GNNs lies in their limited ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 S. Akansha

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Modern neural networks can achieve high accuracy while remaining poorly calibrated, producing confidence estimates that do not match empirical correctness. Yet calibration is often treated as a post-hoc attribute. We take a different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Alessandro Morosini , Matea Gjika , Tomaso Poggio , Pierfrancesco Beneventano

Explaining Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) has garnered significant attention due to the need for interpretability, enabling users to understand the behavior of these black-box models better and extract valuable insights from their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jiaxing Zhang , Xiaoou Liu , Dongsheng Luo , Hua Wei

Recent studies have shown that attackers can catastrophically reduce the performance of GNNs by maliciously modifying the graph structure or node features on the graph. Adversarial training, which has been shown to be one of the most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Xiaobing Pei , Haoran Yang , Gang Shen