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Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Junzhi Shi , Pingping Wang , Shuo Zhuang , Hongyue Li

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

The presence of data corruption in user-generated streaming data, such as social media, motivates a new fundamental problem that learns reliable regression coefficient when features are not accessible entirely at one time. Until now,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-06 Xuchao Zhang , Shuo Lei , Liang Zhao , Arnold P. Boedihardjo , Chang-Tien Lu

In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Lars van der Laan , Ahmed M. Alaa

Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Yahya Alkhatib , Muhammad Ahmar Jamal , Wee Peng Tay

Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-09 Junxi Wu , Dongjian Hu , Yajie Bao , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Over the last few decades, various methods have been proposed for estimating prediction intervals in regression settings, including Bayesian methods, ensemble methods, direct interval estimation methods and conformal prediction methods. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Bin covering is a dual version of classic bin packing. Thus, the goal is to cover as many bins as possible, where covering a bin means packing items of total size at least one in the bin. For online bin covering, competitive analysis fails…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-02-28 Marie G. Christ , Lene M. Favrholdt , Kim S. Larsen

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

In large-scale prediction problems, exhaustively following up on all test units is often impractical and inefficient, motivating a selective reporting strategy that fulfills the dual requirements of informativeness and trustworthiness.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Wangcheng Li , Guanlan Zhao , Xu Guo , Wenguang Sun

Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

We revisit the common practice of evaluating adaptation of Online Continual Learning (OCL) algorithms through the metric of online accuracy, which measures the accuracy of the model on the immediate next few samples. However, we show that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-17 Hasan Abed Al Kader Hammoud , Ameya Prabhu , Ser-Nam Lim , Philip H. S. Torr , Adel Bibi , Bernard Ghanem

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

Web crawling is the problem of keeping a cache of webpages fresh, i.e., having the most recent copy available when a page is requested. This problem is usually coupled with the natural restriction that the bandwidth available to the web…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Utkarsh Upadhyay , Robert Busa-Fekete , Wojciech Kotlowski , David Pal , Balazs Szorenyi