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Thanks to their versatility, ease of deployment and high-performance, surrogate models have become staple tools in the arsenal of uncertainty quantification (UQ). From local interpolants to global spectral decompositions, surrogates are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-12 C. Lataniotis , S. Marelli , B. Sudret

This paper develops a surrogate model refinement approach for the simulation of dynamical systems and the solution of optimization problems governed by dynamical systems in which surrogates replace expensive-to-compute state- and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Jonathan R. Cangelosi , Matthias Heinkenschloss

In many practical cases, a sensitivity analysis or an optimization of a complex time consuming computer code requires to build a fast running approximation of it - also called surrogate model. We consider in this paper the problem of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-14 Loic Le Gratiet

Kriging-based surrogate models have become very popular during the last decades to approximate a computer code output from few simulations. In practical applications, it is very common to sequentially add new simulations to obtain more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-31 Loic Le Gratiet , Claire Cannamela

We present a simple and scalable implementation of next-generation reservoir computing (NGRC) for modeling dynamical systems from time-series data. The method uses a pseudorandom nonlinear projection of time-delay embedded inputs, allowing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-12 Rok Cestnik , Erik A. Martens

A multi-fidelity (MF) active learning method is presented for design optimization problems characterized by noisy evaluations of the performance metrics. Namely, a generalized MF surrogate model is used for design-space exploration,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Riccardo Pellegrini , Jeroen Wackers , Riccardo Broglia , Andrea Serani , Michel Visonneau , Matteo Diez

Considering the case where the response variable is a categorical variable and the predictor is a random function, two novel functional sufficient dimensional reduction (FSDR) methods are proposed based on mutual information and square loss…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Xinyu Li , Jianjun Xu , Wenquan Cui , Haoyang Cheng

Bayesian inverse design provides a principled framework for inferring aerodynamic geometries from sparse flow observations while quantifying uncertainty. However, its practical use in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is severely limited…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-05-26 Bipin Tiwari , Omer San

Deep learning-based surrogate models have demonstrated remarkable advantages over classical solvers in terms of speed, often achieving speedups of 10 to 1000 times over traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. However, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Tailin Wu , Willie Neiswanger , Hongtao Zheng , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

High-dimensional complex multi-parameter problems are prevalent in engineering, exceeding the capabilities of traditional surrogate models designed for low/medium-dimensional problems. These models face the curse of dimensionality,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-06 Yili Zhang , Hanyan Huang , Mei Xiong , Zengquan Yao

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow for constructing surrogate models of a physical model polluted by additive noise to efficiently quantify forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Existing surrogate modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Minglei Yang , Pengjun Wang , Ming Fan , Dan Lu , Yanzhao Cao , Guannan Zhang

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Saibal De , Reese E. Jones , Hemanth Kolla

We propose a novel functional approach to surrogate modeling of dynamical systems with exogenous inputs. This approach, named Functional Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (F-NARX), approximates the system response based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Styfen Schär , Stefano Marelli , Bruno Sudret

Driven by increased complexity of dynamical systems, the solution of system of differential equations through numerical simulation in optimization problems has become computationally expensive. This paper provides a smart data driven…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-25 Kainat Khowaja , Mykhaylo Shcherbatyy , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

The computational effort for the evaluation of numerical simulations based on e.g. the finite-element method is high. Metamodels can be utilized to create a low-cost alternative. However the number of required samples for the creation of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Jan N. Fuhg

A problem of considerable importance within the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the development of efficient methods for the construction of accurate surrogate models. Such efforts are particularly important to applications…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-03-01 Rohit Tripathy , Ilias Bilionis

The work focuses on gathering high-fidelity and low-fidelity numerical simulations data using Nektar++ (Solver based on Applied Mathematics) and XFOIL respectively. The utilization of the higher polynomial distribution in calculating the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Swapnil Kumar

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides high-fidelity simulations of fluid flows but remains computationally expensive for many-query applications. In recent years deep learning (DL) has been used to construct data-driven fluid-dynamic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 David Ramos , Lucas Lacasa , Fermín Gutiérrez , Eusebio Valero , Gonzalo Rubio

Solving inverse problems in cardiac electrophysiology consists in the recovery of physiological parameters from surface electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements, a task which is often computationally unfeasible due to the severe ill-posedness…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Edoardo Centofanti , Giovanni Ziarelli , Simone Scacchi , Luca Franco Pavarino

Controlling instabilities in complex dynamical systems is challenging in scientific and engineering applications. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has seen promising results for applications in different scientific applications. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Luning Sun , Xin-Yang Liu , Siyan Zhao , Aditya Grover , Jian-Xun Wang , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan