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Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

In order to fully utilize "big data", it is often required to use "big models". Such models tend to grow with the complexity and size of the training data, and do not make strong parametric assumptions upfront on the nature of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-17 Vikas Sindhwani , Haim Avron

We establish the weak convergence of the intensity of a nearly-unstable Hawkes process with heavy-tailed kernel. Our result is used to derive a scaling limit for a financial market model where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-26 Ulrich Horst , Wei Xu , Rouyi Zhang

The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Shizhe Chen , Ali Shojaie , Eric Shea-Brown , Daniela Witten

We provide some theoretical extensions and a calibration protocol for our former dynamic optimal execution model. The Hawkes parameters and the propagator are estimated independently on financial data from stocks of the CAC40.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-30 Aurélien Alfonsi , Pierre Blanc

Market information events are generated intermittently and disseminated at high speeds in real-time. Market participants consume this high-frequency data to build limit order books, representing the current bids and offers for a given…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-08 Aditya Nittur Anantha , Shashi Jain

Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Hai-Chuan Xu , Wei-Xing Zhou

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

The stochastic control problem of optimal market making is among the central problems in quantitative finance. In this paper, a deep reinforcement learning-based controller is trained on a weakly consistent, multivariate Hawkes…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-21 Bruno Gašperov , Zvonko Kostanjčar

This study proposes a versatile model for the dynamics of the best bid and ask prices using an extended Hawkes process. The model incorporates the zero intensities of the spread-narrowing processes at the minimum bid-ask spread,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-26 Kyungsub Lee , Byoung Ki Seo

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Patrick Cattiaux , Laetitia Colombani , Manon Costa

This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-10 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Yuxin Fan , Zhuohuan Hu , Lei Fu , Yu Cheng , Liyang Wang , Yuxiang Wang

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto