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Convergence of Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes and the Microstructure of Rough Volatility

Mathematical Finance 2026-03-26 v3 Probability

Abstract

We establish the weak convergence of the intensity of a nearly-unstable Hawkes process with heavy-tailed kernel. Our result is used to derive a scaling limit for a financial market model where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according to a Hawkes process with power-law kernel. After suitable rescaling the price-volatility process converges weakly to a rough Heston model. Our convergence result is stronger than previously established ones that have either focused on light-tailed kernels or the convergence of integrated volatility process. The key is to establish the tightness of the family of rescaled volatility processes. This is achieved by introducing a new methods to establish the CC-tightness of c\`adl\`ag processes based on the classical Kolmogorov-Chentsov tightness criterion for continuous processes.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2312.08784,
  title  = {Convergence of Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes and the Microstructure of Rough Volatility},
  author = {Ulrich Horst and Wei Xu and Rouyi Zhang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.08784},
  year   = {2026}
}

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38 pages