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This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested…
Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
This paper addresses statistical modelling and forecasting of key indicators describing the severity of a developing pandemic, using routinely reported daily counts of infections, hospitalizations, deaths (both in and out of hospital), and…
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…
Airborne pathogen transmission mechanisms play a key role in the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. In this work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach to model and statistically characterize airborne…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
The Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) is an ongoing project that conducts nationally representative HIV-focused surveys for measuring national and regional progress toward UNAIDS' 90-90-90 targets, the primary strategy to end…
The global public health landscape is perpetually challenged by the looming threat of infectious diseases. Central to addressing this concern is the imperative to prevent and manage disease transmission during pandemics, particularly in…
1. Temporal trends in species distributions are necessary for monitoring changes in biodiversity, which aids policymakers and conservationists in making informed decisions. Dynamic species distribution models are often fitted to ecological…
This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach for assessing the risk of West Nile Disease (WND) spillover to the human population. The assessment has been conducted under two different scenarios: (1) assessment of the onset of…