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Structural discovery amongst a set of variables is of interest in both static and dynamic settings. In the presence of lead-lag dependencies in the data, the dynamics of the system can be represented through a structural equation model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-28 Jiahe Lin , Huitian Lei , George Michailidis

The safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes fields like biomedicine, requires them to be able to reason about cause and effect. We investigate this ability by testing 13 open-source LLMs on a fundamental task:…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Sydney Anuyah , Sneha Shajee-Mohan , Ankit-Singh Chauhan , Sunandan Chakraborty

In contemporary scientific research, understanding the distinction between correlation and causation is crucial. While correlation is a widely used analytical standard, it does not inherently imply causation. This paper addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Cao Zhihao , Qu Hongchun

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing (NLP), particularly through Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which enhances LLM capabilities by integrating external knowledge. However, traditional RAG…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Nengbo Wang , Xiaotian Han , Jagdip Singh , Jing Ma , Vipin Chaudhary

Causal discovery is fundamental to scientific understanding and reliable decision-making. Existing approaches face critical limitations: purely data-driven methods suffer from statistical indistinguishability and modeling assumptions, while…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Bo Peng , Sirui Chen , Lei Xu , Chaochao Lu

Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-08 Eric V. Strobl

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

This paper critically re-evaluates LLMs' role in causal discovery and argues against their direct involvement in determining causal relationships. We demonstrate that LLMs' autoregressive, correlation-driven modeling inherently lacks the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Xingyu Wu , Kui Yu , Jibin Wu , Kay Chen Tan

This paper considers inference of causal structure in a class of graphical models called "conditional DAGs". These are directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with two kinds of variables, primary and secondary. The secondary variables are used…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-12 Chris J. Oates , Jim Q. Smith , Sach Mukherjee

Causal inference is a crucial goal of science, enabling researchers to arrive at meaningful conclusions regarding the predictions of hypothetical interventions using observational data. Path models, Structural Equation Models (SEMs), and,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Matthew J. Vowels

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Pablo Geraldo Bastías

Discovering causal relations among observed variables in a given data set is a major objective in studies of statistics and artificial intelligence. Recently, some techniques to discover a unique causal model have been explored based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-23 Takanori Inazumi , Takashi Washio , Shohei Shimizu , Joe Suzuki , Akihiro Yamamoto , Yoshinobu Kawahara

Discovering causal relationship using multivariate functional data has received a significant amount of attention very recently. In this article, we introduce a functional linear structural equation model for causal structure learning when…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Saptarshi Roy , Raymond K. W. Wong , Yang Ni

The ability to understand causality from data is one of the major milestones of human-level intelligence. Causal Discovery (CD) algorithms can identify the cause-effect relationships among the variables of a system from related…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Uzma Hasan , Emam Hossain , Md Osman Gani

Content is created for a well-defined purpose, often described by a metric or signal represented in the form of structured information. The relationship between the goal (metrics) of target content and the content itself is non-trivial.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Navita Goyal , Roodram Paneri , Ayush Agarwal , Udit Kalani , Abhilasha Sancheti , Niyati Chhaya

Causal knowledge extraction is the task of extracting relevant causes and effects from text by detecting the causal relation. Although this task is important for language understanding and knowledge discovery, recent works in this domain…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Anik Saha , Oktie Hassanzadeh , Alex Gittens , Jian Ni , Kavitha Srinivas , Bulent Yener

We focus on the extension of bivariate causal learning methods into multivariate problem settings in a systematic manner via a novel framework. It is purposive to augment the scale to which bivariate causal discovery approaches can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-29 Hongyi Chen , Maurits Kaptein

Language models are traditionally designed around causal masking. In domains with spatial or relational structure, causal masking is often viewed as inappropriate, and sequential linearizations are instead used. Yet the question of whether…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Jared Junkin , Samuel Nathanson

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

The ability to robustly identify causal relationships is essential for autonomous decision-making and adaptation to novel scenarios. However, accurately inferring causal structure requires integrating both world knowledge and abstract…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Khurram Yamin , Shantanu Gupta , Gaurav R. Ghosal , Zachary C. Lipton , Bryan Wilder