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We investigate the probability of observing a given pattern of $n$ rises and falls in a random stationary data series. The data are modelled as a sequence of $n+1$ independent and identically distributed random numbers. This probabilistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-04-29 J M Luck

Many statistical problems involve mixture models and the need for computationally efficient methods to estimate the mixing distribution has increased dramatically in recent years. Newton [Sankhya Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-02-18 Ryan Martin , Jayanta K. Ghosh

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intensity of some random measure by a piecewise constant function on a finite partition of the underlying measurable space. Given a (possibly large) family of candidate partitions, we build a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yannick Baraud , Lucien Birgé

A stochastic algorithm is proposed, finding some elements from the set of intrinsic $p$-mean(s) associated to a probability measure $\nu$ on a compact Riemannian manifold and to $p\in[1,\infty)$. It is fed sequentially with independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Marc Arnaudon , Laurent Miclo

Probability estimation is essential for every statistical data compression algorithm. In practice probability estimation should be adaptive, recent observations should receive a higher weight than older observations. We present a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-01-12 Christopher Mattern

We study a model for flocking given by a $n$-particle system under which each particle jumps forward by a random amount, independently sampled from a given distribution $\theta$, with rate given by a non-increasing function $w$ of its…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-23 Sayan Banerjee , Amarjit Budhiraja , Dilshad Imon

Conventional approaches for simulating steady-state distributions of particles under diffusive and advective transport at high P\'eclet numbers involve solving the diffusion and advection equations in at least two dimensions. Here, we…

We investigate the large population dynamics of a family of stochastic particle systems with three-state cyclic individual behaviour and parameter-dependent transition rates. On short time scales, the dynamics turns out to be approximated…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-10 Julien Barré , Bastien Fernandez , Grégoire Panel

We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Alexandre Lecestre

The problem of joint estimation of power spectrum and modulation from realizations of frequency modulated stationary wideband signals is considered. The study is motivated by some specific signal classes from which departures to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-15 Harold Omer , Bruno Torrésani

Predicting how distributions over discrete variables vary over time is a common task in time series forecasting. But whereas most approaches focus on merely predicting the distribution at subsequent time steps, a crucial piece of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Mukul Bhutani , J. Zico Kolter

A stochastic algorithm is proposed, finding the set of generalized means associated to a probability measure on a compact Riemannian manifold M and a continuous cost function on the product of M by itself. Generalized means include p-means…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-28 Marc Arnaudon , Laurent Miclo

The paper deals with the problem of large-time behaviour of trajectories for discrete-time dynamical systems driven by a random noise. Assuming that the phase space is finite-dimensional and compact, and the noise is a Markov process with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Sergei Kuksin , Armen Shirikyan

We study the problem of estimating a sequence of evolving probability distributions from historical data, where the underlying distribution changes over time in a nonstationary and nonparametric manner. To capture gradual changes, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Edward J. Anderson , Dominic S. T. Keehan

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing repeated measures data, including clustered and longitudinal data, where inferences of both fixed effects and variance components are of importance. Unlike the fixed effect inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-31 J. Zhang , W. Guo , J. S. Carpenter , Andrew Leroux , K. R. Merikangas , N. G. Martin , I. B. Hickie , H. Shou , H. Li

We introduce a new variational estimator for the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process with points in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space and observed within a bounded region. The variational estimator applies in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-02 Jean-François Coeurjolly , Jesper Møller

Mass spectrometry is a widespread approach to work out what are the constituents of a material. Atoms and molecules are removed from the material and collected, and subsequently, a critical step is to infer their correct identities based…

We consider a new type of lookdown processes where spatial motion of each individual is influenced by an individual noise and a common noise, which could be regarded as an environment. Then a class of probability measure-valued processes on…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-05 Hui He

We study a stochastic multiplicative process with reset events. It is shown that the model develops a stationary power-law probability distribution for the relevant variable, whose exponent depends on the model parameters. Two qualitatively…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Susanna C. Manrubia , Damian H. Zanette

A stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas has been constructed based on a super-position of uncorrelated pulses arriving according to a Poisson process. In the most common…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2018-05-04 Audun Theodorsen , Odd Erik Garcia