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Concentrated liquidity automated market makers (AMMs), such as Uniswap v3, enable liquidity providers (LPs) to earn liquidity rewards by depositing tokens into liquidity pools. However, LPs often face significant financial losses driven by…
Traditional risk-adjusted returns, such as the Treynor, Sharpe, Sortino, and Information ratios, have been pivotal in portfolio asset allocation, focusing on minimizing risk while maximizing profit. Nevertheless, these metrics often fail to…
This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…
We derive a closed-form expression capturing the degree of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) of investors for non-"fair" lotteries. We argue that our formula is superior to earlier methods that have been proposed, as it is a function of only…
This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…
This paper presents a Multi Agent Bitcoin Trading system that utilizes Large Language Models (LLMs) for alpha generation and portfolio management in the cryptocurrencies market. Unlike equities, cryptocurrencies exhibit extreme volatility…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
This paper presents a novel dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on spatiotemporal ARCH models to forecast volatility in the US stock market. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the model…
Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong performance in math reasoning benchmarks, but their performance varies inconsistently across problems with varying levels of difficulty. This paper describes Adaptive Multi-Expert Reasoning…
This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…
This work introduces a novel adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) method that utilizes dominant balance analysis (DBA) for efficient and accurate grid adaptation in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The proposed method leverages a…
Distribution shifts and minority subpopulations frequently undermine the reliability of deep neural networks trained using Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM). Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) addresses this by optimizing for the…
One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…
Count time series data are frequently analyzed by modeling their conditional means and the conditional variance is often considered to be a deterministic function of the corresponding conditional mean and is not typically modeled…
Geometric mean market makers (G3Ms), such as Uniswap and Balancer, comprise a popular class of automated market makers (AMMs) defined by the following rule: the reserves of the AMM before and after each trade must have the same (weighted)…
Several useful variance-reduced stochastic gradient algorithms, such as SVRG, SAGA, Finito, and SAG, have been proposed to minimize empirical risks with linear convergence properties to the exact minimizer. The existing convergence results…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
We present a simulation-and-regression method for solving dynamic portfolio allocation problems in the presence of general transaction costs, liquidity costs and market impacts. This method extends the classical least squares Monte Carlo…
This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but…