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An approach to the modelling of volatile time series using a class of uniformity-preserving transforms for uniform random variables is proposed. V-transforms describe the relationship between quantiles of the stationary distribution of the…
This study investigates the application of the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of Bitcoin realized volatility. Utilizing a comprehensive set of 69 predictors -- encompassing…
Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major…
This paper presents several models addressing optimal portfolio choice, optimal portfolio liquidation, and optimal portfolio transition issues, in which the expected returns of risky assets are unknown. Our approach is based on a coupling…
This paper focuses on adaptive control of the discrete-time linear quadratic regulator (adaptive LQR). Recent literature has made significant contributions in proving non-asymptotic convergence rates, but existing approaches have a few…
We introduce the Equilibrated Averaging Residual Method (EARM), a unified equilibrated flux-recovery framework for elliptic interface problems that applies to a broad class of finite element discretizations. The method is applicable in both…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…
We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
This paper presents a heterogeneous adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework for efficient simulation of moderately stiff reactive problems. This framework features an elaborate subcycling-in-time algorithm along with a specialized…
Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
By capturing outliers, volatility clustering, and tail dependence in the asset return distribution, we build a sophisticated model to predict the downside risk of the global financial market. We further develop a dynamic regime switching…
Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…
In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…
We introduce \emph{Adaptive RAG Memory} (ARM), a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework that replaces a static vector index with a \emph{dynamic} memory substrate governed by selective remembrance and decay. Frequently retrieved…
Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…
We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an ARMA statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded…
In this paper, we revisit the relationship between investors' utility functions and portfolio allocation rules. We derive portfolio allocation rules for asymmetric Laplace distributed $ALD(\mu,\sigma,\kappa)$ returns and compare them with…
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR,…