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Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp…

Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Matteo Peduto , Qidong Yang , Jonathan Giezendanner , Devis Tuia , Sherrie Wang

Sub-seasonal wind speed forecasts provide valuable guidance for wind power system planning and operations, yet the forecast skills of surface winds decrease sharply after two weeks. However, large-scale variables exhibit greater…

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-14 Benedikt Schulz , Sebastian Lerch

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Milton Gomez , Louis Poulain--Auzeau , Alexis Berne , Tom Beucler

Weather forecasting presents several challenges, including the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the high computational demands of numerical weather prediction models. To achieve the most accurate predictions, the ideal scenario involves…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-19 Sándor Baran , Mária Lakatos

This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Roberta Baggio , Killian Pujol , Florian Pantillon , Dominique Lambert , Jean-Baptiste Filippi , Jean-François Muzy

Ensemble forecast post-processing is a necessary step in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts. Conventional post-processing methods operate by estimating the parameters of a parametric distribution, frequently on a per-location or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-01 Peter Mlakar , Janko Merše , Jana Faganeli Pucer

Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we…

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting suites in many National Meteorological Services (NMS), with for most of them, the objective of correcting the impact of different types of errors on the…

Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-04 Chengyao Sun , Weisi Guo

Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-24 Daniel Getter , Julie Bessac , Johann Rudi , Yan Feng

Accurate prediction of wind speed and power is vital for enhancing the efficiency of wind energy systems. Numerous solutions have been implemented to date, demonstrating their potential to improve forecasting. Among these, deep learning is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Mulomba Mukendi Christian , Yun Seon Kim , Hyebong Choi , Jaeyoung Lee , SongHee You

Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-19 Aaron J. Hill , Russ S. Schumacher , Israel Jirak

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-04 Syed Kazmi , Berk Gorgulu , Mucahit Cevik , Mustafa Gokce Baydogan

Recent advances in deep learning have made available large, powerful convolutional neural networks (CNN) with state-of-the-art performance in several real-world applications. Unfortunately, these large-sized models have millions of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Giosuè Cataldo Marinò , Gregorio Ghidoli , Marco Frasca , Dario Malchiodi

Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-02 Jieyu Chen , Tim Janke , Florian Steinke , Sebastian Lerch

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-26 Kaleb Phipps , Sebastian Lerch , Maria Andersson , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer , Nicole Ludwig

Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-05 Borhan M. Sanandaji , Akin Tascikaraoglu , Kameshwar Poolla , Pravin Varaiya