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We pursue an inverse approach to utility theory and consumption & investment problems. Instead of specifying an agent's utility function and deriving her actions, we assume we observe her actions (i.e. her consumption and investment…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-17 Alexander M. G. Cox , David Hobson , Jan Obloj

In this paper, we test predictions of a new theory of macroeconomics, called "thermal macroeconomics." The theory aims to apply the mathematical structure of classical thermodynamics, including analogues of temperature and entropy, to…

General Economics · Economics 2024-10-29 Yihang Luo , R. S. MacKay , Nick Chater

Artificial agents now generate behavior rich enough to invite trust, surprise, and concern, yet our evaluation tools still privilege capability scores over psychological structure. This paper argues that the philosophical impasse between…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Alex Bogdan , Adrian de Valois-Franklin

"Intrinsic motivation" refers to the capacity for intelligent systems to be motivated endogenously, i.e. by features of agential architecture itself rather than by learned associations between action and reward. This paper views active…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-14 Alex B. Kiefer

The theory of thermal macroeconomics (TM) analyses economic phenomena within the mathematical framework of classical thermodynamics, using a set of axioms that apply to the purely macroscopic aspects of an economy [CM]. The theory shows…

General Economics · Economics 2026-03-12 Yihang Luo , Robert S. MacKay , Nick Chater

Active inference is a first principle account of how autonomous agents operate in dynamic, non-stationary environments. This problem is also considered in reinforcement learning (RL), but limited work exists on comparing the two approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Noor Sajid , Philip J. Ball , Thomas Parr , Karl J. Friston

Active inference is a Bayesian framework for understanding biological intelligence. The underlying theory brings together perception and action under one single imperative: minimizing free energy. However, despite its theoretical utility in…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-10-23 Zafeirios Fountas , Noor Sajid , Pedro A. M. Mediano , Karl Friston

The dominant theories of rational choice assume logical omniscience. That is, they assume that when facing a decision problem, an agent can perform all relevant computations and determine the truth value of all relevant logical/mathematical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Caspar Oesterheld , Abram Demski , Vincent Conitzer

The long-standing unitary-actor assumption in strategy research -- treating firms as monolithic entities with coherent preferences -- misses that organizations are coalitions of individuals with diverse and often conflicting goals. Although…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-25 Felipe A. Csaszar , John C. Eklund

We consider Incentive Decision Processes, where a principal seeks to reduce its costs due to another agent's behavior, by offering incentives to the agent for alternate behavior. We focus on the case where a principal interacts with a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Sashank J. Reddi , Emma Brunskill

This paper is an original attempt to understand the foundations of economic reasoning. It endeavors to rigorously define the relationship between subjective interpretations and objective valuations of such interpretations in the context of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-05-20 Daniel Lu

In active perception tasks, an agent aims to select sensory actions that reduce its uncertainty about one or more hidden variables. While partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a natural model for such problems,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Yash Satsangi , Shimon Whiteson , Frans A. Oliehoek , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Under what circumstances can a system be said to have beliefs and goals, and how do such agency-related features relate to its physical state? Recent work has proposed a notion of interpretation map, a function that maps the state of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Martin Biehl , Nathaniel Virgo

Deep active inference has been proposed as a scalable approach to perception and action that deals with large policy and state spaces. However, current models are limited to fully observable domains. In this paper, we describe a deep active…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-08 Otto van der Himst , Pablo Lanillos

Expected free energy (EFE) is a central quantity in active inference which has recently gained popularity due to its intuitive decomposition of the expected value of control into a pragmatic and an epistemic component. While numerous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Ran Wei

Data collection designs for social network studies frequently involve asking both parties to a potential relationship to report on the presence of absence of that relationship, resulting in two measurements per potential tie. When inferring…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-07 Francis Lee , Carter T Butts

We examine hypothesis testing within a principal-agent framework, where a strategic agent, holding private beliefs about the effectiveness of a product, submits data to a principal who decides on approval. The principal employs a hypothesis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Safwan Hossain , Yatong Chen , Yiling Chen

Active Inference is an emerging framework providing a quantitative account of behavioral processes in neuroscience and a principled approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Its application to agency problems is natural, offering an…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Francesco Maria Mancinelli , Matteo Torzoni , Domenico Maisto , Francesco Donnarumma , Alberto Corigliano , Giovanni Pezzulo , Andrea Manzoni

We examine behavioral axioms in decision theory that are satisfied approximately rather than exactly. We demonstrate that in key domains -- decisions under risk, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice -- behavior that \emph{almost} satisfies…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-30 Christopher P Chambers , Federico Echenique

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents often operate in partially observed and uncertain environments. Model-based RL suggests that this is best achieved by learning and exploiting a probabilistic model of the world. 'Active inference' is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Alexander Tschantz , Manuel Baltieri , Anil. K. Seth , Christopher L. Buckley