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Climate simulations are essential in guiding our understanding of climate change and responding to its effects. However, it is computationally expensive to resolve complex climate processes at high spatial resolution. As one way to speed up…

In data assimilation, the model may be subject to uncertainties and errors. The weak-constraint data assimilation framework enables incorporating model uncertainty in the dynamics of the governing equations. We propose a new framework for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Alen Alexanderian , Hugo Díaz , Vishwas Rao , Arvind K. Saibaba

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 James Duncan , Shashank Subramanian , Peter Harrington

This paper presents a reduced-order approach for four-dimensional variational data assimilation, based on a prior EO F analysis of a model trajectory. This method implies two main advantages: a natural model-based definition of a mul…

Improved estimation of hydrometeorological states from down-sampled observations and background model forecasts in a noisy environment, has been a subject of growing research in the past decades. Here, we introduce a unified framework that…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-09-15 Ardeshir Mohammad Ebtehaj , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Precipitation governs Earth's hydroclimate, and its daily spatiotemporal fluctuations have major socioeconomic effects. Advances in Numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been measured by the improvement of forecasts for various physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-14 Manmeet Singh , Vaisakh S B , Nachiketa Acharya , Aditya Grover , Suryachandra A Rao , Bipin Kumar , Zong-Liang Yang , Dev Niyogi

Earth system modeling presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing: capturing complex, multiscale nonlinear dynamics in computationally efficient models while minimizing forecast errors caused by necessary simplifications. Even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yongquan Qu , Matthieu Blanke , Sara Shamekh , Pierre Gentine

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-21 Pengwei Liu , Wenwei Wang , Bingqing Peng , Binqing Wu , Liang Sun

Forecasting non-stationary time series is a challenging task because their statistical properties often change over time, making it hard for deep models to generalize well. Instance-level normalization techniques can help address shifts in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Junpeng Lin , Tian Lan , Bo Zhang , Ke Lin , Dandan Miao , Huiru He , Jiantao Ye , Chen Zhang , Yan-fu Li

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Brian R. Hunt , Eric J. Kostelich , Istvan Szunyogh

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-25 Amirmoez Jamaat , Yalan Song , Farshid Rahmani , Jiangtao Liu , Kathryn Lawson , Chaopeng Shen

Data-driven weather prediction (DDWP) models are increasingly becoming popular for weather forecasting. However, while operational weather forecasts predict a wide variety of weather variables, DDWPs currently forecast a specific set of key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Peetak P. Mitra , Vivek Ramavajjala

In three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) for numerical weather prediction (NWP), the observation operator $\mathcal{H}$ plays a central role by mapping model state variables to an observation equivalent. For weather radar,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-23 Marco Stefanelli , Žiga Zaplotnik , Gregor Skok

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Jose González-Abad , Jorge Baño-Medina

Predictions of global climate models typically operate on coarse spatial scales due to the large computational costs of climate simulations. This has led to a considerable interest in methods for statistical downscaling, a similar process…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , Paula Harder , David Rolnick

Severe storms, tropical cyclones, and associated tornadoes, floods, lightning, and microbursts threaten life and property. Reliable, precise, and accurate alerts of these phenomena can trigger defensive actions and preparations. However,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-02-15 Ross N. Hoffman , John M. Henderson , Thomas Nehrkorn

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Yanfei Xiang , Weixin Jin , Haiyu Dong , Mingliang Bai , Zuliang Fang , Pengcheng Zhao , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Xiaomeng Huang

Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Anthony Frion , David S Greenberg

Accurately predicting short-term precipitation is critical for weather-sensitive applications such as disaster management, aviation, and urban planning. Traditional numerical weather prediction can be computationally intensive at high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Sumit Mamtani , Maitreya Sonawane