Related papers: Volume-Sorted Prediction Set: Efficient Conformal …

The goal of this research is to derive an approach to assess uncertainty in an arbitrary volume conditioned by sampling data, without using geostatistical simulation. We have accomplished this goal by deriving an numerical tool suitable for…

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

It is now practically the norm for data to be very high dimensional in areas such as genetics, machine vision, image analysis and many others. When analyzing such data, parametric models are often too inflexible while nonparametric…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

This paper introduces the MPS (Model Prediction Set), a novel framework for online model selection for nonstationary time series. Classical model selection methods, such as information criteria and cross-validation, rely heavily on the…

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

In this paper, we generalize the chance optimization problems and introduce constrained volume optimization where enables us to obtain convex formulation for challenging problems in systems and control. We show that many different problems…

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

We study sequential probability assignment in the Gaussian setting, where the goal is to predict, or equivalently compress, a sequence of real-valued observations almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean constrained to a…

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of…

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

Partition-wise models offer a flexible approach for modeling complex and multidimensional data that are capable of producing interpretable results. They are based on partitioning the observed data into regions, each of which is modeled with…

Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing…

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…