English
Related papers

Related papers: Decision-Focused Fine-Tuning of Time Series Founda…

200 papers

In many automated planning applications, action costs can be hard to specify. An example is the time needed to travel through a certain road segment, which depends on many factors, such as the current weather conditions. A natural way to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Jayanta Mandi , Marco Foschini , Daniel Holler , Sylvie Thiebaux , Jorg Hoffmann , Tias Guns

This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from the historical time series with an efficient…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-11 Thiyanga S. Talagala , Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

Foundation models are an emerging research direction in tabular deep learning. Notably, TabPFNv2 recently claimed superior performance over traditional GBDT-based methods on small-scale datasets using an in-context learning paradigm, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Ivan Rubachev , Akim Kotelnikov , Nikolay Kartashev , Artem Babenko

This paper proposes a forecast-centric adaptive learning model that engages with the past studies on the order book and high-frequency data, with applications to hypothesis testing. In line with the past literature, we produce brackets of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Parley Ruogu Yang

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-11 Ben A. Marconi

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Andreas Auer , Daniel Klotz , Sebastinan Böck , Sepp Hochreiter

Predicting transcriptional responses to novel drugs provides a unique opportunity to accelerate biomedical research and advance drug discovery efforts. However, the inherent complexity and high dimensionality of cellular responses, combined…

Expensive multi-objective optimization is a prevalent and crucial concern in many real-world scenarios, where sample-efficiency is vital due to the limited evaluations to recover the true Pareto front for decision making. Existing works…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Yiming Yao , Fei Liu , Liang Zhao , Xi Lin , Yilu Liu , Qingfu Zhang

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a milestone in aligning large language models with human instructions and adapting them to downstream tasks. In particular, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has gained widespread attention due to its parameter…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Jia-Chen Zhang , Yu-Jie Xiong , Xi-He Qiu , Chun-Ming Xia , Fei Dai , Zheng Zhou

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Foundational vision transformer models have shown impressive few shot performance on many vision tasks. This research presents a novel investigation into the application of parameter efficient fine-tuning methods within an active learning…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-17 Athmanarayanan Lakshmi Narayanan , Ranganath Krishnan , Amrutha Machireddy , Mahesh Subedar

We study the problem of allocating limited supply of medical resources in developing countries, in particular, Sierra Leone. We address this problem by combining machine learning (to predict demand) with optimization (to optimize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Tsai-Hsuan Chung , Vahid Rostami , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Zhixuan Li , Naipeng Chen , Seonghwa Choi , Sanghoon Lee , Weisi Lin

Deep learning methods for material property prediction have been widely explored to advance materials discovery. However, the prevailing pre-train then fine-tune paradigm often fails to address the inherent diversity and disparity of…

Adapting pretrained diffusion models to downstream objectives such as inverse problems often requires expensive test-time guidance or optimization. We propose a principled framework for generating high-quality reward-aligned samples at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Kushagra Pandey , Farrin Marouf Sofian , Jan Niklas Groeneveld , Felix Draxler , Stephan Mandt

Deciding the best future execution time is a critical task in many business activities while evolving time series forecasting, and optimal timing strategy provides such a solution, which is driven by observed data. This solution has plenty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Chen Pan , Fan Zhou , Xuanwei Hu , Xinxin Zhu , Wenxin Ning , Zi Zhuang , Siqiao Xue , James Zhang , Yunhua Hu

Diffusion models are an important tool for generative modelling, serving as effective priors in applications such as imaging and protein design. A key challenge in applying diffusion models for downstream tasks is efficiently sampling from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Alexander Denker , Shreyas Padhy , Francisco Vargas , Johannes Hertrich

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Fanny Lehmann , Firat Ozdemir , Benedikt Soja , Torsten Hoefler , Siddhartha Mishra , Sebastian Schemm

We propose a new finetuning method to provide pre-trained large language models (LMs) the ability to scale test-time compute through the diffusion framework. By increasing the number of diffusion steps, we show our finetuned models achieve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Edoardo Cetin , Tianyu Zhao , Yujin Tang

Accurate univariate forecasting remains a pressing need in real-world systems, such as energy markets, hydrology, retail demand, and IoT monitoring, where signals are often intermittent and horizons span both short- and long-term. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Kyrylo Yemets , Mykola Lukashchuk , Ivan Izonin