Related papers: Function-coherent gambles
This work proposes a symbolic algorithm for the construction of assume-guarantee specifications that allow multiple agents to cooperate. Each agent is assigned goals expressed in a fragment of linear temporal logic known as generalized…
Probabilistic programs are a powerful and convenient approach to formalise distributions over system executions. A classical verification problem for probabilistic programs is temporal inference: to compute the likelihood that the execution…
Intertemporal decision making involves choices among options whose effects occur at different moments. These choices are influenced not only by the effect of rewards value perception at different moments, but also by the time perception…
Dynamic noncooperative game theory is a field of mathematics and economics in which a lot of research is being carried out at present featuring a great number of applications in many different areas of economics and management science like…
LLMs are increasingly used to make or support high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, where alignment depends not only on factual accuracy but on how models weigh tradeoffs between different outcomes. We present an empirical pipeline for…
In this paper we consider the use of probabilistic or random models within a classical trust-region framework for optimization of deterministic smooth general nonlinear functions. Our method and setting differs from many stochastic…
We develop a general assumption-lean framework for constructing uniformly valid confidence sets for functionals defined by moment equalities, referred to as $Z$-functionals. Our approach combines self-normalized statistics with a test…
When a distributed algorithm must be executed by strategic agents with misaligned interests, a social leader needs to introduce an appropriate tax/subsidy mechanism to incentivize agents to faithfully implement the intended algorithm so…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…
In a recent work we have shown how to construct an information algebra of coherent sets of gambles defined on general possibility spaces. Here we analyze the connection of such an algebra with the set algebra of subsets of the possibility…
We explore a broad class of values for cooperative games in characteristic function form, known as \emph{compromise values\/}. These values efficiently allocate payoffs by linearly combining well-specified upper and lower bounds on payoffs.…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
While belief functions may be seen formally as a generalization of probabilistic distributions, the question of the interactions between belief functions and probability is still an issue in practice. This question is difficult, since the…
The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…
We use the theory of cooperative games for the design of fair insurance contracts. An insurance contract needs to specify the premium to be paid and a possible participation in the benefit (or surplus) of the company. It results from the…
It is well known that the minimal superhedging price of a contingent claim is too high for practical use. In a continuous-time model uncertainty framework, we consider a relaxed hedging criterion based on acceptable shortfall risks.…
In applied game theory the motivation of players is a key element. It is encoded in the payoffs of the game form and often based on utility functions. But there are cases were formal descriptions in the form of a utility function do not…
In this paper we focus on noncooperative games with uncertain constraints coupling the agents' decisions. We consider a setting where bounded deviations of agents' decisions from the equilibrium are possible, and uncertain constraints are…
In this paper, we show that coherent sets of gambles and coherent lower and upper previsions can be embedded into the algebraic structure of information algebra. This leads firstly, to a new perspective of the algebraic and logical…
Using results from neurobiology on perceptual decision making and value-based decision making, the problem of decision making between lotteries is reformulated in an abstract space where uncertain prospects are mapped to corresponding…