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Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Motion estimation of organs in a sequence of images is important in numerous medical imaging applications. The focus of this paper is the analysis of 4D Respiratory Correlated Computed Tomography (RCCT) Imaging. It is hypothesized that the…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-27 Markus D. Foote , Pouya Sabouri , Amit Sawant , Sarang C. Joshi

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Rui Li , Jing Long , Muge Qi , Heming Xia , Lei Sha , Peiyi Wang , Zhifang Sui

Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-13 Isidro Cortés-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

The requirement for identifying accurate system representations has not only been a challenge to fulfill, but it has compromised the scalability of formal methods, as the resulting models are often too complex for effective decision making…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-20 Oliver Schön , Sofie Haesaert , Sadegh Soudjani

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Reliable uncertainty estimation is one of the major challenges for medical classification tasks. While many approaches have been proposed, recently the statistical framework of conformal predictions has gained a lot of attention, due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Hendrik Mehrtens , Tabea Bucher , Titus J. Brinker

In this paper, we present a novel probabilistic safe control framework for human-robot interaction that combines control barrier functions (CBFs) with conformal risk control to provide formal safety guarantees while considering complex…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Jake Gonzales , Kazuki Mizuta , Karen Leung , Lillian J. Ratliff

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become critical for evaluating the reliability of artificial intelligence systems, especially in medical image segmentation. This study addresses the interpretability of instance-wise uncertainty values…

Medical image segmentation serves as a critical component of precision medicine, enabling accurate localization and delineation of pathological regions, such as lesions. However, existing models empirically apply fixed thresholds (e.g.,…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-22 Binyu Tan , Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Kaidi Xu , Heng Tao Shen , Xiaoshuang Shi , Fumin Shen

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Adam Fisch , Lihua Lei , Tal Schuster

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Safety-critical control using high-dimensional sensory feedback from optical data (e.g., images, point clouds) poses significant challenges in domains like autonomous driving and robotic surgery. Control can rely on low-dimensional states…