Related papers: Eigenvector-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Contact …
Several important aspects related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission are not well known due to a lack of appropriate data. However, mathematical and computational tools can be used to extract part of this information from the available data, like…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical role of human behavior in influencing infectious disease transmission and the need for models capturing this complex dynamic. We present an agent-based model integrating an epidemiological…
Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
Understanding the factors that impact how a communicable disease like COVID-19 spreads is of central importance to mitigate future outbreaks. Traditionally, epidemic surveillance and forecasting analyses have focused on epidemiological data…
The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…
Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
The interplay between disease spreading and personal risk perception is of key importance for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. We propose a planar system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the co-evolution of…
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…
We introduce a surveillance strategy specifically designed for urban areas to enhance preparedness and response to disease outbreaks by leveraging the unique characteristics of human behavior within urban contexts. By integrating data on…
In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…
Understanding infectious disease transmission in institutional settings requires models that capture how contacts arise from structured routines, roles, and spatial constraints. In aged care facilities, interactions are driven by care…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
The spread of COVID-19 revealed that transmission risk patterns are not homogenous across different cities and communities, and various heterogeneous features can influence the spread trajectories. Hence, for predictive pandemic monitoring,…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…
We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…