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Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Yair Gat , Nitay Calderon , Amir Feder , Alexander Chapanin , Amit Sharma , Roi Reichart

Large language models (LLMs) often make accurate next token predictions but their confidence in these predictions can be poorly calibrated: high-confidence predictions are frequently wrong, and low-confidence predictions may be correct.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Nisarg Parikh , Ananya Sai , Pannaga Shivaswamy , Kunjal Panchal , Andrew Lan

LLMs' overconfidence, particularly when hallucinating, poses a significant challenge for the deployment of the models in safety-critical settings and makes a reliable estimation of uncertainty necessary. Existing approaches for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Hamed Karimi , Vaishali Meyappan , Reza Samavi

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful linguistic engines but remain susceptible to hallucinations: plausible-sounding outputs that are factually incorrect or unsupported. In this work, we present a mathematically grounded framework to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Moses Kiprono

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

Large language models (LLMs) are a promising venue for natural language understanding and generation tasks. However, current LLMs are far from reliable: they are prone to generate non-factual information and, more crucially, to contradict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Diego Calanzone , Stefano Teso , Antonio Vergari

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) combine visual and textual data for tasks such as image captioning and visual question answering. Proper uncertainty calibration is crucial, yet challenging, for reliable use in areas like healthcare…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Zijun Chen , Wenbo Hu , Guande He , Zhijie Deng , Zheng Zhang , Richang Hong

We investigate a surprising limitation of LLMs: their inability to consistently generate text in a user's desired language. We create the Language Confusion Benchmark (LCB) to evaluate such failures, covering 15 typologically diverse…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Kelly Marchisio , Wei-Yin Ko , Alexandre Bérard , Théo Dehaze , Sebastian Ruder

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Confidence calibration, the alignment of a model's predicted confidence with its actual accuracy, is crucial for the reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, this critical property remains largely under-explored in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Ej Zhou , Caiqi Zhang , Tiancheng Hu , Chengzu Li , Nigel Collier , Ivan Vulić , Anna Korhonen

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Maohao Shen , Subhro Das , Kristjan Greenewald , Prasanna Sattigeri , Gregory Wornell , Soumya Ghosh

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Kangjun Noh , Seongchan Lee , Ilmun Kim , Kyungwoo Song

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Jimmy Wang , Thomas Zollo , Richard Zemel , Hongseok Namkoong

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, impeding their reliability in mission-critical situations. One approach to address this issue is to provide citations to relevant sources alongside generated content, enhancing the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Rami Aly , Zhiqiang Tang , Samson Tan , George Karypis

Recent advances in Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) have led to significant performance improvements across many tasks. These gains come with a drastic increase in the models' size, potentially leading to slow and costly use…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Tal Schuster , Adam Fisch , Jai Gupta , Mostafa Dehghani , Dara Bahri , Vinh Q. Tran , Yi Tay , Donald Metzler

We propose an evaluation framework for class probability estimates (CPEs) in the presence of label uncertainty, which is commonly observed as diagnosis disagreement between experts in the medical domain. We also formalize evaluation metrics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-23 Takahiro Mimori , Keiko Sasada , Hirotaka Matsui , Issei Sato
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