Related papers: Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off betw…

We introduce \textsc{CAT}, a framework designed to evaluate and visualize the \emph{interplay} of \emph{accuracy} and \emph{response consistency} of Large Language Models (LLMs) under controllable input variations, using multiple-choice…

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate factually inaccurate content even if they have corresponding knowledge, which critically undermines their reliability. Existing approaches attempt to mitigate this by incorporating uncertainty in QA…

In order to oversee advanced AI systems, it is important to understand their underlying decision-making process. When prompted, large language models (LLMs) can provide natural language explanations or reasoning traces that sound plausible…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, they can be easily misled by unfaithful arguments during conversations, even when their original statements are correct. To this…

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly…

Massively Multilingual Language Models (MMLMs) have recently gained popularity due to their surprising effectiveness in cross-lingual transfer. While there has been much work in evaluating these models for their performance on a variety of…

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

While in-context learning with large language models (LLMs) has shown impressive performance, we have discovered a unique miscalibration behavior where both correct and incorrect predictions are assigned the same level of confidence. We…

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Uncertainty calibration is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs), particularly when users rely on verbalized confidence estimates. While prior work has focused on classifiers or short-form generation, confidence…

Large Language Models (LLMs) currently respond to every prompt. However, they can produce incorrect answers when they lack knowledge or capability -- a problem known as hallucination. We instead propose post-training an LLM to generate…

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the…

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence…

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for task adaptation in large language models (LLMs), where models infer underlying task structures from a few demonstrations. However, ICL remains susceptible to biases that arise…

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited impressive zero-shot performance on inference tasks. However, LLMs may suffer from spurious correlations between input texts and output labels, which limits LLMs' ability to reason based purely on…

Large language models (LLMs) often miscommunicate their uncertainty: repeated queries can produce divergent answers, yet generated responses are typically unhedged or hedged in ways that do not reflect this variability. This conveys…