Related papers: Global population crisis scenarios predicted by a …
We study a linear model of McKendrick-von Foerster-Keyfitz type for the temporal development of the age structure of a two-sex human population. For the underlying system of partial integro-differential equations, we exploit the semigroup…
The population dynamics that evolves in the radial symmetric geometry is investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate…
In recent years non-demographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, non-demographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a-priori unknown burst size, or…
We propose an extremely simple mathematical model that is shown to be able to account for more than 99 per cent of all the variation in economic and demographic macrodynamics of the world for almost two millennia of its history. This…
The variant of phenomenological theory of humankind future existence after time of demographic transition based on treating the time of demographic transition as a point of phase transition and taking into account an appearing of the new…
Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system…
I study a population model in which the reproduction rate lambda is inherited with mutation, favoring fast reproducers in the short term, but conflicting with a process that eliminates agglomerations of individuals. The model is a variant…
The survival of natural populations may be greatly affected by environmental conditions that vary in space and time. We look at a population residing in two locations (patches) coupled by migration, in which the local conditions fluctuate…
The dynamics of adaptation is difficult to predict because it is highly stochastic even in large populations. The uncertainty emerges from number fluctuations, called genetic drift, arising in the small number of particularly fit…
1. Although environmental variability is expected to play a more prominent role under climate change, current demographic models that ignore the differential environmental histories of cohorts across generations are unlikely to accurately…
This paper presents a mathematical framework for modeling the dynamics of heterogeneous populations. Models describing local and non-local growth and transport processes, dependent on dynamically changing population structures, appear in a…
A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare,…
We study a mathematical model describing the growth process of a population structured by age and a phenotypical trait, subject to aging, competition between individuals and rare mutations. Our goals are to describe the asymptotic behaviour…
The abundance of a species' population in an ecosystem is rarely stationary, often exhibiting large fluctuations over time. Using historical data on marine species, we show that the year-to-year fluctuations of population growth rate obey a…
The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of interspecies interaction. Here, we include intraspecific competition to the Lotka-Volterra model and solve it analytically. Despite being simple and thoroughly studied,…
Is a causal description of human wealth history conceivable? To investigate the matter we introduce a simple causal albeit strongly aggregated model, assuming that the observed wealth growth is mainly driven by human collaborative efforts…
Analysis of the urban population fraction data for sixteen populous countries over the last fifty years reveals a universal increase in urbanization, exhibiting four qualitatively distinct temporal patterns: (i) continuously accelerating…
Fine population distribution both in space and in time is crucial for epidemic management, disaster prevention,urban planning and more. Human mobility data have a great potential for mapping population distribution at a high level of…
Von Hoerner (1975) examined the effects of human population growth and predicted agricultural, environmental, and other problems from observed growth rate trends. Using straightforward calculations, VH75 predicted the "doomsday" years for…
Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play…