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From clinical development of cancer therapies to investigations into partisan bias, adaptive sequential designs have become increasingly popular method for causal inference, as they offer the possibility of improved precision over their…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Jessica Dai , Paula Gradu , Christopher Harshaw

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a core problem in causal inference with strong connections to Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning. This paper considers the problem of adaptively selecting the treatment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-22 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

We consider the problem of Adaptive Neyman Allocation for the class of AIPW estimators in a design-based setting, where potential outcomes and covariates are deterministic. As each subject arrives, an adaptive procedure must select both a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Fangyi Chen , Shu Ge , Jian Qian , Christopher Harshaw

In the era of large-scale AI deployment and high-stakes clinical trials, adaptive experimentation faces a ``trilemma'' of conflicting objectives: minimizing cumulative regret (welfare loss during the experiment), maximizing the estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Jiachun Li , Kaining Shi , David Simchi-Levi

This study designs an adaptive experiment for efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs). In each round of our adaptive experiment, an experimenter sequentially samples an experimental unit, assigns a treatment, and observes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Masahiro Kato , Akihiro Oga , Wataru Komatsubara , Ryo Inokuchi

In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve the precision of average treatment effect (ATE) estimation using covariates without requiring a correctly specified outcome model. Although well studied in low-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Dogyoon Song

In the experimental design literature, Neyman allocation refers to the practice of allocating units into treated and control groups, potentially in unequal numbers proportional to their respective standard deviations, with the objective of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Jinglong Zhao

We study the problem of adaptively controlling a known discrete-time nonlinear system subject to unmodeled disturbances. We prove the first finite-time regret bounds for adaptive nonlinear control with matched uncertainty in the stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-30 Nicholas M. Boffi , Stephen Tu , Jean-Jacques E. Slotine

We investigate online convex optimization in non-stationary environments and choose dynamic regret as the performance measure, defined as the difference between cumulative loss incurred by the online algorithm and that of any feasible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Peng Zhao , Yu-Jie Zhang , Lijun Zhang , Zhi-Hua Zhou

We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Masahiro Kato , Takuya Ishihara , Junya Honda , Yusuke Narita

We consider an adaptive experiment for treatment choice and design a minimax and Bayes optimal adaptive experiment with respect to regret. Given binary treatments, the experimenter's goal is to choose the treatment with the highest expected…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Masahiro Kato

We study average treatment effect (ATE) estimation under complete randomization with many covariates in a design-based, finite-population framework. In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve precision of estimators using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Dogyoon Song

Adaptive experiments such as multi-armed bandits offer efficiency gains over traditional randomized experiments but pose two major challenges: invalid inference on the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) due to adaptive sampling and low…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Daniel Molitor , Samantha Gold

We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Paula Gradu , Elad Hazan , Edgar Minasyan

Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-13 Jiachun Li , David Simchi-Levi , Yunxiao Zhao

Adaptive gradient algorithms such as ADAGRAD and its variants have gained popularity in the training of deep neural networks. While many works as for adaptive methods have focused on the static regret as a performance metric to achieve a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Parvin Nazari , Esmaile Khorram

Projection-free online learning has drawn increasing interest due to its efficiency in solving high-dimensional problems with complicated constraints. However, most existing projection-free online methods focus on minimizing the static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Yibo Wang , Wenhao Yang , Wei Jiang , Shiyin Lu , Bing Wang , Haihong Tang , Yuanyu Wan , Lijun Zhang

Multi-armed bandits are widely used for sequential experimentation in clinical trials, recommendation systems, and online platforms. While regret minimization and valid inference from adaptively collected data have each been studied…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yu-Shiou Willy Lin , Dae Woong Ham , Iavor Bojinov

In the setting of multi-armed trials, adaptive designs are a popular way to increase estimation efficiency, identify optimal treatments, or maximize rewards to individuals. Recent work has considered the case of estimating the effects of K…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Kristen B. Hunter

Under the Neyman causal model, it is well-known that OLS with treatment-by-covariate interactions cannot harm asymptotic precision of estimated treatment effects in completely randomized experiments. But do such guarantees extend to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-19 Joel A. Middleton
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