English

Neumann-series corrections for regression adjustment in randomized experiments

Statistics Theory 2025-11-12 v1 Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

We study average treatment effect (ATE) estimation under complete randomization with many covariates in a design-based, finite-population framework. In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve precision of estimators using covariates, without requiring a correctly specified outcome model. However, existing design-based analyses establish asymptotic normality only up to p=o(n1/2)p = o(n^{1/2}), extendable to p=o(n2/3)p = o(n^{2/3}) with a single de-biasing. We introduce a novel theoretical perspective on the asymptotic properties of regression adjustment through a Neumann-series decomposition, yielding a systematic higher-degree corrections and a refined analysis of regression adjustment. Specifically, for ordinary least squares regression adjustment, the Neumann expansion sharpens analysis of the remainder term, relative to the residual difference-in-means. Under mild leverage regularity, we show that the degree-dd Neumann-corrected estimator is asymptotically normal whenever pd+3(logp)d+1=o(nd+2)p^{ d+3}(\log p)^{ d+1}=o(n^{ d+2}), strictly enlarging the admissible growth of pp. The analysis is purely randomization-based and does not impose any parametric outcome models or super-population assumptions.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2511.08539,
  title  = {Neumann-series corrections for regression adjustment in randomized experiments},
  author = {Dogyoon Song},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.08539},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T07:32:38.968Z