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A key assumption in supervised learning is that training and test data follow the same probability distribution. However, this fundamental assumption is not always satisfied in practice, e.g., due to changing environments, sample selection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Nan Lu , Tianyi Zhang , Tongtong Fang , Takeshi Teshima , Masashi Sugiyama

Covariate shift occurs when the distribution of input features differs between the training and testing phases. In covariate shift, estimating an unknown function's moment is a classical problem that remains under-explored, despite its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-01 Zhen Zhang , Xin Liu , Shaoli Wang , Jiaye Teng

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Ying Jin , José Zubizarreta

We consider robustness to distribution shifts in the context of diagnostic models in healthcare, where the prediction target $Y$, e.g., the presence of a disease, is causally upstream of the observations $X$, e.g., a biomarker. Distribution…

The major sources of abundant data are constantly expanding with the available data collection methodologies in various applications - medical, insurance, scientific, bio-informatics and business. These data sets may be distributed…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2016-06-24 Aruna Govada , Sanjay K. Sahay

Many existing approaches for generating predictions in settings with distribution shift model distribution shifts as adversarial or low-rank in suitable representations. In various real-world settings, however, we might expect shifts to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Kirk Bansak , Elisabeth Paulson , Dominik Rothenhäusler

The generalization ability of machine learning models degrades significantly when the test distribution shifts away from the training distribution. We investigate the problem of training models that are robust to shifts caused by changes in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Jiaheng Wei , Harikrishna Narasimhan , Ehsan Amid , Wen-Sheng Chu , Yang Liu , Abhishek Kumar

As a prominent challenge in addressing real-world issues within a dynamic environment, label shift, which refers to the learning setting where the source (training) and target (testing) label distributions do not match, has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Ruidong Fan , Xiao Ouyang , Hong Tao , Yuhua Qian , Chenping Hou

Despite extensive research into mitigating distribution shifts, many existing algorithms yield inconsistent performance, often failing to outperform baseline Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) across diverse scenarios. Furthermore, high…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Paulo Mario P. Medina , Jose Marie Antonio Miñoza , Sebastian C. Ibañez

One of the most common machine learning setups is logistic regression. In many classification models, including neural networks, the final prediction is obtained by applying a logistic link function to a linear score. In binary logistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Avrajit Ghosh , Bin Yu , Manfred Warmuth , Peter Bartlett

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Wenwen Si , Sangdon Park , Insup Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Osbert Bastani

In randomized clinical trials, adjustments for baseline covariates at both design and analysis stages are highly encouraged by regulatory agencies. A recent trend is to use a model-assisted approach for covariate adjustment to gain…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Yanyao Yi , Qingyuan Zhao

The most recent multi-source covariate shift algorithm is an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm for missing target output. In this paper, we extend this algorithm to the framework of federated learning. For data islands in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-01 Yaqian Xu , Wenquan Cui , Jianjun Xu , Haoyang Cheng

The standard supervised learning paradigm works effectively when training data shares the same distribution as the upcoming testing samples. However, this stationary assumption is often violated in real-world applications, especially when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Yong Bai , Yu-Jie Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama , Zhi-Hua Zhou

The properties of the normal distribution under linear transformation, as well the easy way to compute the covariance matrix of marginals and conditionals, offer a unique opportunity to get an insight about several aspects of uncertainties…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-02-12 Giulio D'Agostini

In machine learning, it is commonly assumed that training and test data share the same population distribution. However, this assumption is often violated in practice because the sample selection bias may induce the distribution shift from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Kun Kuang , Hengtao Zhang , Fei Wu , Yueting Zhuang , Aijun Zhang

Distribution shifts on graphs -- the discrepancies in data distribution between training and employing a graph machine learning model -- are ubiquitous and often unavoidable in real-world scenarios. These shifts may severely deteriorate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Kexin Zhang , Shuhan Liu , Song Wang , Weili Shi , Chen Chen , Pan Li , Sheng Li , Jundong Li , Kaize Ding

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

Conformal prediction methodology has recently been extended to the covariate shift setting, where the distribution of covariates differs between training and test data. While existing results ensure that the prediction sets from these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mehrdad Pournaderi , Yu Xiang