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Time evolving surfaces can be modeled as two-dimensional Functional time series, exploiting the tools of Functional data analysis. Leveraging this approach, a forecasting framework for such complex data is developed. The main focus revolves…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Niccolò Ajroldi , Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

The joint alignment of multivariate functional data plays an important role in various fields such as signal processing, neuroscience and medicine, including the statistical analysis of data from wearable devices. Traditional methods often…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-18 Vi Thanh Pham , Jonas Bille Nielsen , Klaus Fuglsang Kofoed , Jørgen Tobias Kühl , Andreas Kryger Jensen

One-shot prediction enables rapid adaptation of pretrained foundation models to new tasks using only one labeled example, but lacks principled uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample coverage…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Maja Waldron

A characteristic feature of functional data is the presence of phase variability in addition to amplitude variability. Existing functional regression methods do not handle time variability in an explicit and efficient way. In this paper we…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-22 Daniel Gervini

Estimation and inference with modern longitudinal data from wearable devices, which consist of biological signals at high-frequency time points, is burdened by massive computational costs. We propose a distributed estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Cole Manschot , Emily C. Hector

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 M. Stocker , W. Małgorzewicz , M. Fontana , S. Ben Taieb

Sparse functional data arise when measurements are observed infrequently and at irregular time points for each subject, often in the presence of measurement error. These characteristics introduce additional challenges for functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Uche Mbaka , Jiguo Cao , Michelle Carey

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Han Lin Shang

New estimators for the mean and the covariance function for partially observed functional data are proposed using a detour via the fundamental theorem of calculus. The new estimators allow for a consistent estimation of the mean and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-01 Dominik Liebl , Stefan Rameseder

We introduce Adaptive Functional Principal Component Analysis, a novel method to capture directions of variation in functional data that exhibit sharp changes in smoothness. We first propose a new adaptive scatterplot smoothing technique…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Angel Garcia de la Garza , Britton Sauerbrei , Adam Hantman , Jeff Goldsmith

This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-27 Jing Lei , Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman

We study nonparametric covariance function estimation for functional data observed with noise at discrete locations on a $d$-dimensional domain. Estimating the covariance function from discretely observed data is a challenging nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Yoshikazu Terada , Atsutomo Yara

As high-dimensional and high-frequency data are being collected on a large scale, the development of new statistical models is being pushed forward. Functional data analysis provides the required statistical methods to deal with large-scale…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-08 Israel Martínez-Hernández , Marc G. Genton

We consider estimation of mean and covariance functions of functional snippets, which are short segments of functions possibly observed irregularly on an individual specific subinterval that is much shorter than the entire study interval.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-08 Zhenhua Lin , Jane-Ling Wang

Empirical analyses of ordinal outcomes using repeated cross-sectional data rely on marginal distributions, leaving the joint distribution unobserved and the sources of distributional change unidentified. This paper develops a framework to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Rami V. Tabri

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

Elastic Riemannian metrics have been used successfully in the past for statistical treatments of functional and curve shape data. However, this usage has suffered from an important restriction: the function boundaries are assumed fixed and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-19 Darshan Bryner , Anuj Srivastava

Multivariate functional data present theoretical and practical complications which are not found in univariate functional data. One of these is a situation where the component functions of multivariate functional data are positive and are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Cody Carroll , Hans-Georg Müller