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Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Jiawen Zhang , Zhenwei Zhang , Shun Zheng , Xumeng Wen , Jia Li , Jiang Bian

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have become increasingly popular for zero-shot forecasting. However, for a new time series domain not fully covered by the pretraining set, performance can suffer. Therefore, when a practitioner cares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Thomas L. Lee , Edoardo M. Ponti , Amos Storkey

Time-series forecasting is a challenging problem that traditionally requires specialized models custom-trained for the specific task at hand. Recently, inspired by the success of large language models, foundation models pre-trained on vast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Yuanzhao Zhang , William Gilpin

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance across diverse tasks without domain-specific training, fueling interest in their potential for time-series forecasting. While LLMs have shown potential in zero-shot forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Junwoo Park , Hyuck Lee , Dohyun Lee , Daehoon Gwak , Jaegul Choo

Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Le Wang , Boyuan Zhang

Behavioral Foundation Models (BFMs) proved successful in producing policies for arbitrary tasks in a zero-shot manner, requiring no test-time training or task-specific fine-tuning. Among the most promising BFMs are the ones that estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Maksim Bobrin , Ilya Zisman , Alexander Nikulin , Vladislav Kurenkov , Dmitry Dylov

Time series foundation models have recently gained a lot of attention due to their ability to model complex time series data encompassing different domains including traffic, energy, and weather. Although they exhibit strong average…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Shivani Tomar , Seshu Tirupathi , Elizabeth Daly , Ivana Dusparic

Large language models (LLMs) have been applied in many fields and have developed rapidly in recent years. As a classic machine learning task, time series forecasting has recently been boosted by LLMs. Recent works treat large language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Hua Tang , Chong Zhang , Mingyu Jin , Qinkai Yu , Zhenting Wang , Xiaobo Jin , Yongfeng Zhang , Mengnan Du

Effective resource allocation in higher education depends on reliable enrolment forecasts, yet institutional planners frequently face data series disrupted by structural shifts. This paper investigates whether zero-shot Time Series…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Jittarin Jetwiriyanon , Teo Susnjak , Surangika Ranathunga

We investigate the effectiveness of time series foundation models (TSFMs) for crowd flow prediction, focusing on Moirai and TimesFM. Evaluated on three real-world mobility datasets-Bike NYC, Taxi Beijing, and Spanish national OD flows-these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Massimiliano Luca , Ciro Beneduce , Bruno Lepri

Accurate household electricity short-term load forecasting (STLF) is key to future and sustainable energy systems. While various studies have analyzed statistical, machine learning, or deep learning approaches for household electricity…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Marcel Meyer , David Zapata , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Oliver Müller

Decision-making in building energy systems critically depends on the predictive accuracy of relevant time-series models. In scenarios lacking extensive data from a target building, foundation models (FMs) represent a promising technology…

The proliferation of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced zero-shot forecasting, enabling predictions for unseen time series without task-specific fine-tuning. Extensive research has confirmed that no single TSFM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Hao-Nan Shi , Ting-Ji Huang , Lu Han , De-Chuan Zhan , Han-Jia Ye

Foundation Models (FMs) are models trained on large corpora of data that, at very large scale, can generalize to new tasks without any task-specific finetuning. As these models continue to grow in size, innovations continue to push the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Avanika Narayan , Ines Chami , Laurel Orr , Simran Arora , Christopher Ré

The advent of foundation models (FMs) as an emerging suite of AI techniques has struck a wave of opportunities in computational healthcare. The interactive nature of these models, guided by pre-training data and human instructions, has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Yunkun Zhang , Jin Gao , Zheling Tan , Lingfeng Zhou , Kexin Ding , Mu Zhou , Shaoting Zhang , Dequan Wang

The recent development of foundation models for time series data has generated considerable interest in using such models across a variety of applications. Although foundation models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Coen Adler , Yuxin Chang , Felix Draxler , Samar Abdi , Padhraic Smyth

Learning time series foundation models has been shown to be a promising approach for zero-shot time series forecasting across diverse time series domains. Insofar as scaling has been a critical driver of performance of foundation models in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Xinghong Fu , Yanhong Li , Georgios Papaioannou , Yoon Kim

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Samuel Dooley , Gurnoor Singh Khurana , Chirag Mohapatra , Siddartha Naidu , Colin White

Accurate forecasting of electric load and renewable generation is essential for reliable and cost effective power system operations. Recent advances in transformer based and foundation machine learning models, driven by large scale…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-27 Muhy Eddin Za'ter , Bri-Mathias Hodge

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied…