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Uncertainty estimation is important for deploying LLMs in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where hallucinations can appear fluent and plausible while being factually incorrect, making it difficult for users to judge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Mingcheng Zhu , Yu Liu , Tingting Zhu

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Sree Harsha Tanneru , Chirag Agarwal , Himabindu Lakkaraju

To address the challenge of quantifying uncertainty in the outputs generated by language models, we propose a novel measure of semantic uncertainty, semantic spectral entropy, that is statistically consistent under mild assumptions. This…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Yi Liu

Uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for applications where safety and reliability are important. In particular, uncertainty can be used to improve the trustworthiness of LLMs by detecting factually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Alexander Nikitin , Jannik Kossen , Yarin Gal , Pekka Marttinen

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yuheng Huang , Jiayang Song , Zhijie Wang , Shengming Zhao , Huaming Chen , Felix Juefei-Xu , Lei Ma

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely employed in programming language analysis to enhance human productivity. Yet, their reliability can be compromised by various code distribution shifts, leading to inconsistent outputs. While…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yufei Li , Simin Chen , Yanghong Guo , Wei Yang , Yue Dong , Cong Liu

Selective prediction systems can mitigate harms resulting from language model hallucinations by abstaining from answering in high-risk cases. Uncertainty quantification techniques are often employed to identify such cases, but are rarely…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Edward Phillips , Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Sean Wu , Anshul Thakur , David A. Clifton

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Natural Language Generation (NLG) is crucial for assessing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), as it reveals confidence in predictions, identifies failure modes, and gauges output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Sean Wang , Yicheng Jiang , Yuxin Tang , Lu Cheng , Hanjie Chen

Despite the massive advancements in large language models (LLMs), they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yongjin Yang , Haneul Yoo , Hwaran Lee

Despite demonstrating impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still often struggle to accurately express the factual knowledge they possess, especially in cases where the LLMs' knowledge boundaries are ambiguous. To improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyang Xue , Fei Mi , Qi Zhu , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Erxin Yu , Xuming Hu , Kam-Fai Wong

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

Linking textual values in tabular data to their corresponding entities in a Knowledge Base is a core task across a variety of data integration and enrichment applications. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown State-of-The-Art…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Carlo Bono , Federico Belotti , Matteo Palmonari

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Ken Fukuda

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Dang Nguyen , Ali Payani , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

We study the feasibility of identifying epistemic uncertainty (reflecting a lack of knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty (reflecting entropy in the underlying distribution), in the outputs of large language models (LLMs) over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Gustaf Ahdritz , Tian Qin , Nikhil Vyas , Boaz Barak , Benjamin L. Edelman

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren