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The present study aims to establish the model of the cryptocurrency price trend based on financial theory using the LSTM model with multiple combinations between the window length and the predicting horizons, the random walk model is also…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-11 Yifan Yao , Lina Wang

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Pavel Ciaian , d'Artis Kancs , Miroslava Rajcaniova

This study attempts to analyze patterns in cryptocurrency markets using a special type of deep neural networks, namely a convolutional autoencoder. The method extracts the dominant features of market behavior and classifies the 40 studied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Vladimir Puzyrev

Asymmetric relationship between price and volatility is a prominent feature of the financial market time series. This paper explores the price-volatility nexus in cryptocurrency markets and investigates the presence of asymmetric volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-09 Shinji Kakinaka , Ken Umeno

Proof of work cryptocurrencies began with the promise of a more egalitarian future with a decentralized monetary system with no powerful entities in charge. While this vision is far from realized, these cryptocurrencies are still touted to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sishan Long , Soumya Basu , Emin Gün Sirer

The role of cryptocurrencies within the financial systems has been expanding rapidly in recent years among investors and institutions. It is therefore crucial to investigate the phenomena and develop statistical methods able to capture…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-22 Beatrice Foroni , Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella

Synthetic time series are essential tools for data augmentation, stress testing, and algorithmic prototyping in quantitative finance. However, in cryptocurrency markets, characterized by 24/7 trading, extreme volatility, and rapid regime…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-06 Yihao Ang , Qiang Wang , Qiang Huang , Yifan Bao , Xinyu Xi , Anthony K. H. Tung , Chen Jin , Zhiyong Huang

We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-10 Milan Žukovič

This study investigates three central questions in portfolio optimization. First, whether time-varying moment estimators outperform conventional sample estimators in practical portfolio construction. Second, whether incorporating a turnover…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-01 Heming Chen , Xiaojing Cai

Financial time series have historically been assumed to be a martingale process under the Random Walk hypothesis. Instead of making investment decisions using the raw prices alone, various multimodal pattern matching algorithms have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-21 Minsuk Kim , Byungchul Kim , Junyeong Yong , Jeongwoo Park , Gyeongmin Kim

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-16 Spencer Wheatley , Didier Sornette , Tobias Huber , Max Reppen , Robert N. Gantner

The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino Experiment (KATRIN) aims to measure the absolute neutrino mass with unprecedented sensitivity, requiring precise monitoring of the windowless gaseous tritium source, where tritium beta decay occurs. To track…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2026-05-12 Nicholas Tan Jerome , Nadia Aouadi , Christoph Koehler , Suren Chilingaryan , Andreas Kopmann

An algorithmic stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency managed by algorithms (i.e., smart contracts) to dynamically minimize the volatility of its price relative to a specific form of asset, e.g., US dollar. As algorithmic stablecoins have…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Wenqi Zhao , Hui Li , Yuming Yuan

A reputation of high volatility accompanies the emergence of Bitcoin as a financial asset. This paper intends to nuance this reputation and clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's volatility. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Nassim Dehouche

In the survey we consider the case studies on sales time series forecasting, the deep learning approach for forecasting non-stationary time series using time trend correction, dynamic price and supply optimization using Q-learning, Bitcoin…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Extreme volatility, nonlinear dependencies, and systemic fragility are characteristics of cryptocurrency markets. The assumptions of normality and centralized control in traditional financial risk models frequently cause them to miss these…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Kiarash Firouzi

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-09 Alessio Brini , Jimmie Lenz

Time series forecasting is crucial for decision-making across various domains, particularly in financial markets where stock prices exhibit complex and non-linear behaviors. Accurately predicting future price movements is challenging due to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-04-29 Tiantian Tu

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Chongyang Bai , Tommy White , Linda Xiao , V. S. Subrahmanian , Ziheng Zhou