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Modelling financial time series as a time change of a simpler process has been proposed in various forms over the years. One of such recent approaches is called volatility homogenisation decomposition, and has been designed specifically to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-07-01 Paweł Fiedor , Odd Magnus Trondrud

Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-22 Stanisław Drożdż , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marek Stanuszek , Marcin Wątorek

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Tomáš Tokár , Denis Horváth

Blockchain finance has become a part of the world financial system, most typically manifested in the attention to the price of Bitcoin. However, a great deal of work is still limited to using technical indicators to capture Bitcoin price…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-03 Panpan Li , Shengbo Gong , Shaocong Xu , Jiajun Zhou , Yu Shanqing , Qi Xuan

According to the advent of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, many investments and businesses are now conducted online through cryptocurrencies. Among them, Bitcoin uses blockchain technology to make transactions secure, transparent, traceable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Milad Asadpour , Alireza Rezaee , Farshid Hajati

Distributed ledger technologies have opened up a wealth of fine-grained transaction data from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This allows research into problems like anomaly detection, anti-money laundering, pattern mining and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Naomi A. Arnold , Peijie Zhong , Cheick Tidiane Ba , Ben Steer , Raul Mondragon , Felix Cuadrado , Renaud Lambiotte , Richard G. Clegg

This paper shows that temporal CNNs accurately predict bitcoin spot price movements from limit order book data. On a 2 second prediction time horizon we achieve 71\% walk-forward accuracy on the popular cryptocurrency exchange coinbase. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-06 Rakshit Jha , Mattijs De Paepe , Samuel Holt , James West , Shaun Ng

Cryptocurrency network analysis consists of applying the tools and methods of social network analysis to transactional data issued from cryptocurrencies. The main difference with most online social networks is that users do not exchange…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Natkamon Tovanich , Célestin Coquidé , Rémy Cazabet

This paper compares and contrasts stationarity between the conventional stock market and cryptocurrency. The dataset used for the analysis is the intraday price indices of the S&P500 from 1996 to 2023 and the intraday Bitcoin indices from…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-07 Yaoyue Tang , Karina Arias-Calluari , Michael S. Harré

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently gained a lot of popularity, not only as a digital form of currency but also as an investment vehicle. Online marketplaces and exchanges allow users across the world to convert…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2018-07-17 Francesco Bortolussi , Zeger Hoogeboom , Frank W. Takes

In this paper we extend the known methodology for fitting stable distributions to the multivariate case and apply the suggested method to the modelling of daily cryptocurrency-return data. The investigated time period is cut into 10…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-24 Szabolcs Majoros , András Zempléni

The efficient market hypothesis has far-reaching implications for financial trading and market stability. Whether or not cryptocurrencies are informationally efficient has therefore been the subject of intense recent investigation. Here, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-06 Higor Y. D. Sigaki , Matjaz Perc , Haroldo V. Ribeiro

In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-04 Aniruddha Dutta , Saket Kumar , Meheli Basu

We report on the use of sentiment analysis on news and social media to analyze and predict the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency and has the highest market capitalization among digital currencies. Predicting Bitcoin…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Pratikkumar Prajapati

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-08 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Dijana Tolic , Matija Piskorec , Zhang Ce , Irena Vodenska

We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-06 Mikkel Bennedsen , Asger Lunde , Mikko S. Pakkanen

The regulatory framework of cryptocurrencies (and, in general, blockchain tokens) is of paramount importance. This framework drives nearly all key decisions in the respective business areas. In this work, a computational model is proposed…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Elias Iosif , Klitos Christodoulou , Andreas Vlachos

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Andrés García-Medina , Toan Luu Duc Huynh3

In this work, we propose to apply a new model fusion and learning paradigm, known as Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), to the field of Bitcoin price prediction. Price prediction of financial product has always been a big topic in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Yuanhong Wu , Wei Ye , Jingyan Xu , D. Frank Hsu

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Zhen Zeng , Rachneet Kaur , Suchetha Siddagangappa , Saba Rahimi , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso