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Learning from repeated play in a fixed two-player zero-sum game is a classic problem in game theory and online learning. We consider a variant of this problem where the game payoff matrix changes over time, possibly in an adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Mengxiao Zhang , Peng Zhao , Haipeng Luo , Zhi-Hua Zhou

We propose a novel online learning method for minimizing regret in large extensive-form games. The approach learns a function approximator online to estimate the regret for choosing a particular action. A no-regret algorithm uses these…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-01-05 Kevin Waugh , Dustin Morrill , J. Andrew Bagnell , Michael Bowling

Sequential prediction problems such as imitation learning, where future observations depend on previous predictions (actions), violate the common i.i.d. assumptions made in statistical learning. This leads to poor performance in theory and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Stephane Ross , Geoffrey J. Gordon , J. Andrew Bagnell

Test-time scaling can improve model performance by aggregating stochastic reasoning trajectories. However, achieving sample-efficient test-time self-consistency under a limited budget remains an open challenge. We introduce PETS (Principled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Zhangyi Liu , Huaizhi Qu , Xiaowei Yin , He Sun , Yanjun Han , Tianlong Chen , Zhun Deng

Since exact probabilistic inference is intractable in general for large multiply connected belief nets, approximate methods are required. A promising approach is to use heuristic search among hypotheses (instantiations of the network) to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Max Henrion

We present a probabilistic model of an intrusion in a renewal process. Given a process and a sequence of events, an intrusion is a subsequence of events that is not produced by the process. Applications of the model are, for example, online…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-05-29 David Tolpin

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Darren Xu , Kuang-Chih Lee

In this paper, we study reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to solve real-world decision problems with the objective of maximizing the long-term reward as well as satisfying cumulative constraints. We propose a novel first-order policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-23 Yongshuai Liu , Jiaxin Ding , Xin Liu

This article studies the problem of online non-parametric change point detection in multivariate data streams. We approach the problem through the lens of kernel-based two-sample testing and introduce a sequential testing procedure based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Florian Kalinke , Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun

We introduce a new methodology that enables detection of the onset of convergence towards Nash equilibria in simple repeated games with infinitely large strategy spaces, thereby revealing the heuristics used in decision-making. The method…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-06 Jørgen Vitting Andersen , Philippe de Peretti

This work explores use of novel advances in best subset selection for regression modelling via continuous optimization for offline change point detection and estimation in univariate Gaussian data sequences. The approach exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Hans Reimann , Sarat Moka , Georgy Sofronov

We consider a family of learning strategies for online optimization problems that evolve in continuous time and we show that they lead to no regret. From a more traditional, discrete-time viewpoint, this continuous-time approach allows us…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-02-28 Joon Kwon , Panayotis Mertikopoulos

We show that Optimistic Hedge -- a common variant of multiplicative-weights-updates with recency bias -- attains ${\rm poly}(\log T)$ regret in multi-player general-sum games. In particular, when every player of the game uses Optimistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Constantinos Daskalakis , Maxwell Fishelson , Noah Golowich

Blockchain technology is a breakthrough in changing the ways of business and organization operations, in which the consensus problem is challenging with practical constraints, such as computational power and consensus standard. In this…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Yuqi Xie , Changbing Tang , Feilong Lin , Guanrong Chen , Zhao Zhang , Zhonglong Zheng

Experimental testing is vital in the optimization of web applications, and as such A/B testing has been widely adopted as a methodology for determining optimal content for many web applications. While some testing platforms provide…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-04 Ian E. Fellows

Interleaving is an online evaluation approach for information retrieval systems that compares the effectiveness of ranking functions in interpreting the users' implicit feedback. Previous work such as Hofmann et al (2011) has evaluated the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Alessandro Benedetti , Anna Ruggero

The closure principle is fundamental in multiple testing and has been used to derive many efficient procedures with familywise error rate control. However, it is often unsuitable for modern research, which involves flexible multiple testing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Lasse Fischer , Marta Bofill Roig , Werner Brannath

Machine learning problems such as neural network training, tensor decomposition, and matrix factorization, require local minimization of a nonconvex function. This local minimization is challenged by the presence of saddle points, of which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Santiago Paternain , Aryan Mokhtari , Alejandro Ribeiro

In many derivative-free optimization algorithms, a sufficient decrease condition decides whether to accept a trial step in each iteration. This condition typically requires that the potential objective function value decrease of the trial…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Anjie Ding , Francesco Rinaldi , Luis Nunes Vicente

This paper develops an online inverse reinforcement learning algorithm aimed at efficiently recovering a reward function from ongoing observations of an agent's actions. To reduce the computation time and storage space in reward estimation,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-08-01 Kun Li , Joel W. Burdick
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