Related papers: Estimating Export-productivity Cutoff Contours wit…
In this chapter, an input-output economic model with multiple interactive economic systems is considered. The model captures the multi-dimensional nature of the economic sectors or industries in each economic system, the interdependencies…
Many performance metrics have been introduced for the evaluation of classification performance, with different origins and niches of application: accuracy, macro-accuracy, area under the ROC curve, the ROC convex hull, the absolute error,…
Defect prediction can be a powerful tool to guide the use of quality assurance resources. However, while lots of research covered methods for defect prediction as well as methodological aspects of defect prediction research, the actual cost…
We introduce a mathematical theory called market connectivity that gives concrete ways to both measure the efficiency of markets and find inefficiencies in large markets. The theory leads to new methods for testing the famous efficient…
We propose an interpretable machine learning framework to help identify trade data discrepancies that are challenging to detect with traditional methods. Our system analyzes trade data to find a novel inverse price-volume signature, a…
A rich theoretical and empirical literature investigated the link between export diversification and firm performance. Prior theoretical works hinted at the key role of capability accumulation in shaping production activities and…
Retention campaigns in customer relationship management often rely on churn prediction models evaluated using traditional metrics such as AUC and F1-score. However, these metrics fail to reflect financial outcomes and may mislead strategic…
We develop a complete analysis of a general entry-exit-scrapping model. In particular, we consider an investment project that operates within a random environment and yields a payoff rate that is a function of a stochastic economic…
Pricing of products and services, which has a significant impact on consumer demand, is one of the most important factors in maximizing business profits. Prescriptive price optimization is a prominent data-driven pricing methodology…
Threshold selection is a fundamental problem in any threshold-based extreme value analysis. While models are asymptotically motivated, selecting an appropriate threshold for finite samples is difficult and highly subjective through standard…
Commonly used methods of production function and markup estimation assume that a firm's output quantity can be observed as data, but typical datasets contain only revenue, not output quantity. We examine the nonparametric identification of…
We distinguished between the expected and actual profit of a firm. We proposed that, beyond maximizing profit, a firm's goal also encompasses minimizing the gap between expected and actual profit. Firms strive to enhance their capability to…
This article introduces a novel method for detecting distinctive structural changes in economic data, particularly within frequency distribution tables. The approach identifies significant shifts in the distribution of a variable over time…
Accelerating the deep transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and forming new quality productive forces are essential components for China to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese Dream. After more than 40 years of…
In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…
We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs when output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows how their willingness…
Threshold selection plays a key role for various aspects of statistical inference of rare events. Most classical approaches tackling this problem for heavy-tailed distributions crucially depend on tuning parameters or critical values to be…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
Accurately modeling the production of new ideas is crucial for innovation theory and endogenous growth models. This paper provides a comprehensive methodological survey of strategies for estimating idea production functions. We explore…