Related papers: Estimating Export-productivity Cutoff Contours wit…

Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…

We show how the Shannon entropy function can be used as a basis to set up complexity measures weighting the economic efficiency of countries and the specialization of products beyond bare diversification. This entropy function guarantees…

This paper investigates the causal effect of export intensity on productivity and other firm-level outcomes with a dose-response function. After positing that export intensity acts as a continuous treatment, we investigate counterfactual…

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…

Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs…

The relatedness between a country or a firm and a product is a measure of the feasibility of that economic activity. As such, it is a driver for investments at a private and institutional level. Traditionally, relatedness is measured using…

We present a new metric estimating fitness of countries and complexity of products by exploiting a non-linear non-homogeneous map applied to the publicly available information on the goods exported by a country. The non homogeneous terms…

Evaluating the financial performance of manufacturing firms requires consideration of both the time value of money and the relative importance of multiple decision criteria. Conventional approaches relying solely on deterministic…

In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy's gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image…

This paper presents evidence on the granular nature of firms' network of foreign suppliers and studies its implications for the impact of supplier shocks on domestic firms' performance. To demonstrate this, I use customs level information…

We investigate activities that have different periods of duration. We define the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in a repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed…

In this paper, we design two chapters to discuss trade dynamics with heterogeneous fluctuations, contributing new insights to macroeconomic issues related to international trade. In the first chapter, we model general exchange rate…

We develop a theoretical framework to investigate the link between rising scale economies and stagnating productivity. Our model features heterogeneous firms, imperfect competition, and firm selection. We demonstrate that scale economies…

In this contribution, we exploit machine learning techniques to evaluate whether and how close firms are to becoming successful exporters. First, we train and test various algorithms using financial information on both exporters and…

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…

We study a large economy in which firms cannot compute exact solutions to the non-linear equations that characterize the equilibrium price at which they can sell future output. Instead, firms use polynomial expansions to approximate prices.…

We present functional forms allowing a broader range of analytic solutions to common economic equilibrium problems. These can increase the realism of pen-and-paper solutions or speed large-scale numerical solutions as computational…

We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…

We develop a new approach to estimating flexible demand models with exogenous supply-side shocks. Our approach avoids conventional assumptions of exogenous product characteristics, putting no restrictions on product entry, despite using…

The recent explosion in the amount and dimensionality of data has exacerbated the need of trading off computational and statistical efficiency carefully, so that inference is both tractable and meaningful. We propose a framework that…